Developers bet on Bitcoin proposal BIP-360 to fall quantum risk

Most Bitcoin developers believe that quantum computers do not pose an immediate threat to the network. According to them, machines capable of breaking down Bitcoin's cryptography are unlikely to appear for many decades. However, critics are concerned that Bitcoin is not clearly prepared, as governments and large corporations have begun transitioning to quantum-resistant systems.

The proposed improvement Bitcoin BIP-360 aims to address this gap, with the goal of introducing quantum-resistant address formats, allowing users to gradually transition to more secure cryptographic standards over time.

Discussion on long-term risks

The topic of quantum computers and the risks they pose to encrypted blockchains has recently resurfaced in discussions surrounding Bitcoin. The concern is not with the immediate threat, but with the long-term risks — an issue that investors and developers seem to still lack a common “language” to discuss.

The latest wave of debate stems from statements made by several well-known Bitcoin developers, who refute the view that quantum computers will soon threaten the network. Their argument is quite clear: there currently does not exist a quantum computer powerful enough to break Bitcoin's encryption, and that possibility is unlikely to occur in the next few decades.

Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, believes that the risk in the short term is almost zero. He describes the field of quantum computing as still being “too early,” with many research problems yet to be solved. Even in the worst-case scenario, according to Back, Bitcoin's design does not allow for the simultaneous and immediate theft of coins across the entire network.

This perspective is widely shared in the protocol development community. However, critics argue that the issue does not lie in the timeline, but rather in the absence of a specific preparation roadmap.

Why are there still concerns?

Bitcoin currently uses elliptic curve cryptography to secure wallets and authenticate transactions. In a theoretical scenario, sufficiently powerful quantum computers running Shor's algorithm could infer private keys from public keys, making a portion of coins vulnerable to attacks.

The network will not collapse immediately, but funds in old address formats — including about 1.1 million BTC believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto and never moved since 2010 — may become targets for malicious actors.

Currently, this threat remains hypothetical. However, many governments and large companies have acted as if disruptions caused by quantum computers are inevitable. The U.S. has outlined a plan to phase out traditional cryptographic systems by the mid-2030s, while companies like Cloudflare and Apple have begun implementing quantum-resistant solutions.

Conversely, Bitcoin has yet to reach consensus on a specific transition plan, and it is this gap that is creating unease in the market.

Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, noted that the gap between developers and investors is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. According to him, the flow of capital is not overly concerned with whether a quantum attack will occur in 5 or 15 years, but rather whether Bitcoin has a reliable path to adapt if cryptographic standards change.

Preparation methods

Developers argue that Bitcoin can fully adapt before any real threats emerge. Many proposals have been made to encourage users to switch to quantum-resistant address formats, even in extreme scenarios that could limit spending from old wallets. All of this is precautionary, rather than a late response.

BIP-360 is one such proposal. This proposal introduces a new type of Bitcoin address that uses quantum-resistant cryptography, allowing users to transfer assets to wallets based on mathematical algorithms that are believed to be more secure against quantum computers.

BIP-360 introduces three different signature methods, with increasing levels of protection, allowing the network to transition gradually rather than being forced to upgrade abruptly. No automatic changes occur; users will voluntarily participate by transferring coin to the new address format over time.

Supporters argue that BIP-360 is not aimed at predicting the arrival of quantum computers, but rather focuses on preparation. Transitioning Bitcoin to a new cryptographic standard could take years, requiring software updates, infrastructure changes, and community coordination. Starting early will help reduce the risk of making hasty decisions in the future.

Nevertheless, the cautious governance mechanism of Bitcoin becomes a challenge when facing long-term risks that require early consensus.

Quantum computers are not yet an existential threat to Bitcoin, and there is no reliable timeline indicating otherwise. However, as institutional and long-term capital flows increase, even distant risks need to be addressed more clearly.

As long as developers and investors have not agreed on a common framework, the question of quantum computing will remain hanging — not as a panic, but as a silent force affecting market sentiment.

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