XRP price remains stable around $1.93, with total assets of the XRP Spot ETF launched by institutions such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton now exceeding $1.2 billion, with a cumulative net inflow of over $1.07 billion. Since its launch in November last year, the XRP ETF has achieved net inflows for 32 consecutive trading days.
ETF Continuous 32 Days of Rare Stability in Net Inflows
(Source: SoSoValue)
The strongest bullish factor for XRP remains institutional demand. Since its launch in November last year, the XRP ETF has achieved net inflows for 32 consecutive trading days, a continuity that is extremely rare in the history of cryptocurrency ETFs. In comparison, the Bitcoin ETF experienced an outflow of $523 million in a single day on November 19, while the Ethereum ETF saw cumulative outflows of over $200 million over three consecutive days this month. In an increasingly selective market, the persistent inflows into the XRP ETF demonstrate investors' firm belief rather than a blind chase of market momentum.
The stability behind this is the long-term allocation logic of institutional investors. Traditional asset management giants like Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton have launched XRP ETF, which represents their recognition of XRP's long-term value. The clients of these institutions are mainly pension funds, insurance companies, and high-net-worth individuals, whose investment decisions are based on fundamental analysis and long-term allocation needs, rather than short-term price fluctuations. When this type of “smart money” continues to flow in, it often indicates the establishment of medium to long-term trends.
Three Major Drivers of Continuous Inflows for XRP ETF
Advantages of Regulatory Clarity: After Ripple's partial victory, the legal status of XRP in the United States is relatively clear, allowing institutional allocation without concerns.
Cross-border Payment Narrative: RippleNet collaborates with hundreds of financial institutions worldwide, with practical application scenarios attracting long-term capital.
Relative Valuation Advantage: XRP has a market capitalization of 117 billion dollars, which is lower than Ethereum but higher than other altcoins, with ample liquidity and significant growth potential.
The cumulative net inflow of funds has exceeded 1.07 billion USD, and the total asset scale has surpassed 1.2 billion USD. This scale is significant in the XRP ecosystem as it represents a substantive endorsement of XRP by traditional financial capital. When pension and insurance funds start to allocate to a certain crypto asset, that asset has transformed from a “speculative target” to a “allocative asset.”
Regulatory Victory Dividends and Practical Applications of Cross-Border Payments
After Ripple's partial victory, the legal status of XRP in the United States has become relatively clearer, bringing ongoing benefits. The alleviation of regulatory pressure has helped XRP maintain a market capitalization of over $117 billion, making it one of the most liquid large crypto assets. This advantage of regulatory clarity is particularly prominent in the current environment.
The lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC has lasted from 2020 to 2023, during which XRP's price has been under pressure for a long time. After the court ruled in July 2023 that XRP does not constitute a security in certain contexts, the price skyrocketed from about $0.50 to $0.93. The effect of this “regulatory overhang removal” is still fermenting today. In contrast, while Ethereum is also considered not a security, it lacks a clear court ruling; other altcoins are even in a regulatory gray area and could be targeted by the SEC at any time.
The actual application scenarios of XRP are another supporting factor. RippleNet has established partnerships with hundreds of financial institutions worldwide, and the transaction volume for cross-border payments continues to grow. This practical application makes XRP not only a speculative target but also a part of the financial infrastructure. When banks use XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, it creates real token demand. Although this demand has limited impact on prices in the short term, it provides a solid foundation for long-term valuation.
At the same time, the macroeconomic environment remains cautious. The market expects global liquidity to gradually ease, and the outlook for U.S. interest rates is stabilizing, which is conducive to market rotation rather than speculation. For XRP, this environment is more favorable for consolidation and position adjustment, rather than explosive growth. The low-interest-rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets, and when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in 2026, the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies like XRP will further increase.
Key Technical Resistance and Breakout Path
(Source: Trading View)
From a technical perspective, the price prediction for XRP remains at a critical turning point. XRP is in a descending channel on the 4-hour chart, with the top of the channel being controlled by resistance from a descending trend line. The current price is testing the area between $1.93 and $1.98, which is the convergence point of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. This area has repeatedly hindered price rebounds, making it a key turning point for determining recent trends.
The momentum indicators show initial signs of improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to the midpoint of 50, forming a higher low compared to the previous price low, indicating that the downward pressure is easing. This improvement in the RSI structure is often an early signal of a trend reversal. When the RSI rises from the oversold region (below 30) and breaks above 50, it typically marks a shift in momentum from negative to positive, with buying pressure beginning to outweigh selling pressure.
If the price is blocked near the resistance level, it may drop to $1.85, with a deeper support level at $1.77. These two support levels are key low points from previous consolidation and are also the positions where a large number of stop-loss orders are set. If it breaks below, the next support may be at $1.50, which will confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
If the price effectively breaks above 2.00 USD, the trend will shift upwards. If XRP can stay above 2.00 USD, its structure will open a path for a rebound to the range of 2.11 USD to 2.17 USD, overlapping with previous resistance levels. This target range is the local high point from early December, and a breakout would attract more buying funds, potentially initiating a new round of upward cycles.
Three Necessary Conditions for XRP to Break $2.15
Stabilize at the $2.00 level: It requires consecutive days of closing above $2.00 to confirm the validity of the breakout, rather than a false breakout.
ETF Fund Inflows Accelerate: If the daily average inflow doubles from the current level, it will provide enough buying support to break through and rise.
Bitcoin Returns to $100,000: A strong market is a necessary condition for altcoins to rise, and XRP struggles to surge independently during Bitcoin's weakness.
As volatility narrows, XRP seems to be closer to a recovery rather than exhaustion. With the rebuilding of market confidence, it is expected to welcome a decisive upward trend. This “compression followed by explosion” logic is extremely common in technical analysis; the longer the price consolidates within a narrow range, the stronger the breakout power tends to be after the breakthrough. XRP has been consolidating in the $1.93-$2.00 range for several weeks now, and the technical energy is accumulating.
For XRP investors, the current period is a critical observation phase. If ETF fund inflows are maintained and break through 2.00 USD, gradual position building can be considered, with a target of 2.15 USD and a stop loss set below 1.85 USD. If it fails to break through and falls below 1.85 USD, it will be necessary to reassess the bullish narrative and wait for clearer bottoming signals. The continuous inflow of institutional funds provides the greatest margin of safety, but confirmation of a technical breakout remains a necessary condition.
