February 14 News, Uniswap’s UNI token surged briefly due to Securitize announcing the integration of BlackRock’s tokenized treasury product BUIDL into its protocol, while Bitwise’s spot ETF application also ignited market sentiment. After the announcement, UNI spiked over 40% within two hours but quickly retreated, showing clear signs of “profit-taking” after the initial rally.
From a capital structure perspective, the surge in volume to push prices higher exhausted bullish momentum, with bears concentrated on selling at high levels. As the price declined, long positions were forcibly closed, and open interest decreased accordingly, indicating a lack of sustained buying support for the rally. Technically, UNI once again broke below the key moving average resistance at $4.20, with short-term momentum significantly weakening.
On-chain cost distribution also reveals potential selling pressure. A large amount of holdings are concentrated around $6, with another dense zone between $7.3 and $7.4, forming medium-term strong resistance levels. The nearest supply zone is between $3.95 and $4. Once the price approaches these levels, historical trapped positions are more likely to exit on rebounds, limiting upward potential.
From a trend perspective, since late November 2025, UNI has been forming lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart, with multiple failed rebounds over six weeks, indicating the seller-dominated pattern has not yet reversed. Even a brief rebound to $4.60 appears more as liquidity for reducing positions rather than a trend reversal signal.
Fundamentally, DeFi trading activity has not shown sustained improvement. Data indicates that decentralized trading briefly rebounded in early February but quickly declined again, reaching around $842 million on February 13. The shrinking trading volume suggests protocol revenue and token burn rates are weakening simultaneously, making it difficult to sustain long-term price support.
Under the ETF narrative and RWA integration halo, UNI may still experience short-term volatility rebounds, but supply pressure, downtrend momentum, and declining on-chain activity impose clear constraints on upside potential. The key future trend will still depend on the battle between bulls and bears around the $4 level.
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