South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the 16th Long-term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan on May 27, projecting domestic natural gas demand will decline at an annual average rate of 0.94% from 45.91 million tons in the current year to 41 million tons by 2038. The plan addresses stable supply management amid shifting demand patterns driven by power generation sector contraction and city gas expansion. MOTIE outlined infrastructure expansion measures including storage capacity increases up to 8.87 million tons and 564 kilometers of additional pipeline construction by 2038 to ensure supply stability.
MOTIE Projects Natural Gas Demand Decline Through 2038
Total natural gas demand is projected to decline from 45.91 million tons in the current year to 41 million tons by 2038, representing an annual average decrease of 0.94%. City gas demand is analyzed to increase at an annual average rate of 1.5% from 23.56 million tons in the current year to 28.16 million tons by 2038. Power generation demand is predicted to decrease at an annual average rate of 4.51% from 22.35 million tons in the current year to 12.84 million tons by 2038, based on the 11th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand's power generation mix.
MOTIE separately forecasted 'supply management demand' following the 15th Long-term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan to stably manage volatility in power generation natural gas demand. Under this methodology, total natural gas demand is projected to increase slightly at an annual average rate of 0.01% from 47.62 million tons in the current year to 47.67 million tons by 2038. MOTIE announced it will revise and supplement demand fluctuations from three mega-projects — semiconductors, physical artificial intelligence (AI), and AI data centers — by reflecting the confirmed results of the 12th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand.
MOTIE Plans 8.87 Million Ton Storage Expansion by 2038
MOTIE plans to secure maximum storage capacity of 8.87 million tons by 2038 through private base storage tank expansion and construct an additional 564 kilometers of natural gas trunk pipelines to expand supply infrastructure in a timely manner for stable natural gas supply and demand. The ministry confirmed these infrastructure expansion measures as part of the 16th plan announced on May 27.
MOTIE Strengthens National Reserve System with Private Sector Participation
MOTIE plans to strengthen the national natural gas reserve system to respond to uncertainties in the international energy market. The ministry will pursue measures to expand private sector participation including direct importers for self-consumption in the current public-centered reserve system, and actively utilize existing public infrastructure. MOTIE will construct an 'Integrated Natural Gas Supply and Demand Management System' that integrates public and private import and inventory information to manage supply and demand situations in real time.
MOTIE Establishes Integrated Natural Gas Management System
MOTIE will establish a preemptive supply and demand response system through AI-based crisis prediction and simulation. The integrated management system will consolidate public and private sector natural gas import and inventory data for real-time monitoring. This system forms part of MOTIE's measures to address international energy market volatility outlined in the 16th Long-term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan announced on May 27.
FAQ
What did South Korea's MOTIE announce on May 27?
MOTIE announced the 16th Long-term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan on May 27, projecting domestic natural gas demand will decline at an annual average rate of 0.94% from 45.91 million tons in the current year to 41 million tons by 2038.
Why is South Korea's power generation natural gas demand decreasing?
Power generation natural gas demand is predicted to decrease at an annual average rate of 4.51% from 22.35 million tons in the current year to 12.84 million tons by 2038, based on the power generation mix outlined in the 11th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand.
How much storage capacity will South Korea add by 2038?
MOTIE plans to secure maximum storage capacity of 8.87 million tons by 2038 through private base storage tank expansion and construct an additional 564 kilometers of natural gas trunk pipelines.
