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U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.7%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.27%. Chip stocks surged in the late trading session due to news, with NVIDIA ( NVDA.O ) closing up 3.1%, and TSMC ( TSM.N ) rising over 1%. Zeekr ( ZK.N ) jumped 11.5%. Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday local time and warned that tariffs are raising the risks of rising unemployment and inflation rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference: "If the tariffs that have already been announced remain significantly high, it is likely to lead to rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and increasing unemployment rates." "This statement is like 'correct nonsense'. The Fed is maintaining a high level of vigilance, just like market participants, and the performance of data before the June meeting will determine its priority in combating inflation or not.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 80.2%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 19.8%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 28%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 59.1%, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 12.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 75 basis point rate cut is 0%. Why do we believe that the current subjective willingness of the Federal Reserve to cut rates in June is not strong? First, the Federal Reserve's current data-based policy framework is "lagging," and the biggest problem before the June meeting is that there is not enough data to give the Fed the courage to take action. Before the interest rate meeting on June 18-19, the Fed could only see the CPI and PPI for May, and the previous data did not provide sufficient justification for easing. Second, the timing of the June interest rate meeting is very "inopportune." The White House has set the deadline for the 90-day tariff postponement window as July 8, and the deadline for the new tax cuts and spending bill is July 4, while the Fed's interest rate meeting is on June 18-19. Before the phased results of these two policies appear, forward-looking rate cuts mean taking on significant risks—if the tariff negotiations and tax cuts proceed smoothly, the Federal Reserve has every reason to "take it slow" on easing.
Bitcoin has shown strong price resilience in the recent trading session, and its intraday trend has shown a typical volatile upward pattern. In yesterday's white session, the price of bitcoin relied on the upper channel of the Bollinger band to continue to attack, yesterday's white market shock upward to 97432 line under pressure, the evening market affected by the US stock market and the news of the lowest pressure fell to 95732 line to stop falling, after the interest rate decision the price briefly probed and rebounded quickly, all the way up to break the previous high point suppression straight to 98823 line of small consolidation! At present, the currency price remains high and fluctuates, and the technical indicators also maintain an overall rise. It is recommended that in the short term, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support of the 97800-98000 line, if the price retraces and obtains effective support in this area, you can rely on the MA5 moving average as a defensive position to lay out long orders on dips; If the price falls below the 97500 key support, you need to be alert to the risk of a short-term correction and adjust your position in time. In the medium to long term, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend against the backdrop of increased macroeconomic uncertainty and the approaching Bitcoin halving event, but policy risks and market sentiment need to be closely monitored.
Ethereum has recently shown strong correlation with Bitcoin, emerging with a notable bullish trend. During the day session yesterday, the price of Ethereum encountered strong resistance after reaching around $1850. This level not only aligns with the daily MA60 moving average resistance but also coincides with the Fibonacci extension level of 1.382, forming a key pressure zone. In the evening session, influenced by macro news and Bitcoin price fluctuations, Ethereum retraced synchronously, dipping to a low of $1786. This point is precisely at the MA200 moving average support level on the 4-hour chart, and also the golden ratio 0.618 retracement level. After gaining effective support, the price completed a minor bottoming consolidation at the bottom. Subsequently, driven by bullish market sentiment, Ethereum started a rebound trend, reaching a high of $1862 so far. Currently, the day session needs to pay close attention to the break of the $1880 level, which is the resistance level of the weekly descending trend line. If it can stabilize effectively, it is expected to further challenge the previous high of $1920 and launch an attack on the $2000 round number. As for the support below, the $1850 - $1835 range is an important defense area. Once broken, Ethereum may return to the previous oscillation pattern, and the short-term bullish trend faces adjustment risks.