October 30 Macro Main Line: Interest rate meeting + US-China meeting ends, macro main line returns to interest rate route, government shutdown and AI narrative!

Finally got through a tense and exciting day this week,

Early morning interest rate meeting, announced the pause of QT and Powell's speech,

This morning, the leaders of China and the United States met, and a trade agreement was reached, easing the trade friction.

The major events of this week are basically over, and now we will see the earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Coin, and MSTR MicroStrategy today in the early morning.

Next, although there are no major benefits in the macro environment, it has eliminated two "big thunder" issues in recent times, namely tariffs and the interest rate meeting.

Next, the macro main line returns to the game of whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, the U.S. government shutdown, and the sustainability of the AI narrative.

1. Powell's speech yesterday greatly lowered the likelihood of a rate cut in December, but after the speech ended, the probability of a December rate cut rebounded from 55% to 72.6%. The money market is still betting on a 25BP rate cut in December. At the same time, the dot plot for December is also crucial.

It is important to note that there are two opportunities for rate cuts in December and January, which will become key points of contention. If, according to Powell, there is a pause in rate cuts in December due to various factors, then January next year will become a focal point for recent rate cut negotiations.

After completing the China-U.S. leadership meeting, Trump quickly seized the opportunity to return home. The external performance show is over, and next he needs to handle domestic affairs, which is the government shutdown. If the government cannot resume operations next week, it means this shutdown will exceed the previous term. Although Trump can take this opportunity to clarify the government system, there are risks involved.

3, after several companies announced their earnings reports tonight, basically all of the tech giants except Nvidia have completed their third-quarter earnings announcements. If there are no major issues with the earnings reports tonight, it means that expectations for Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report will become more optimistic, which may effectively boost the AI narrative in the US stock market.

4. Of course, at this time, AI narratives are substantially positive for the US stock market, but lack a significant driving effect on BTC. However, the positive risk environment will at least slow down the selling pressure on BTC. Once the government resumes operations and liquidity gradually replenishes, asset prices will naturally be driven by sentiment.

Summary:

Once the government resumes operations, the next focus will be on inflation and employment data to play the game of Intrerest Rate paths, the familiar formula is back!