CRYPTO MARKET ANALYSIS, URGENT 👇

Are we starting a bear market? What to do with altcoins? Buy or sell?

Bitcoin has touched the support zone between the 200 and 365-day moving averages.

If the price holds above the 365-day moving average (bull market support), it historically generates good upward movements.

It is very important to keep ourselves above the support.

We remain bullish.

But we need positive catalysts to drive the markets. Without them, the rally does not continue.

CURRENT CATALYSTS

CATALYZER 1: INTEREST RATE CUT

When interest rates fall, money seeks returns in risk assets. Altcoins benefit directly.

At least two more rate cuts are expected.

Powell said that another rate cut in December "is far from being assured." But for now, this is noise, they want to scare you.

The current probability of seeing a rate cut in December is 69.8%.

CATALYZER 2: LIQUIDITY AT MAXIMUMS

- M2 Money Supply: $22.20 TRILLION
- Money Market Funds: $7.48 TRILLION
- Stablecoins: $308 BILLONES (ATH)

More liquidity = more capital towards altcoins when sentiment changes.

CATALYZER 3: ALTCOIN ETFs

Institutions bought 944,000 Bitcoin in 2025 (7x the mined).

Now the altcoin ETFs are coming. 16 pending applications: SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, ADA, HBAR.

If approved, it will be a great catalyst.

CATALYST 4: PRO-CRYPTO GOVERNANCE

Trump signed:

- GENIUS Act
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
- Order 401(k): $12.5 TRILLION can enter crypto

The SEC shifted from regulatory warfare to a clear framework. The U.S. wants to be the crypto capital of the world.

CATALYZER 5: RETAIL OUT OF MARKET

- "Bitcoin" searches at bearish lows
- "Altcoin" searches dropped 50% since August

Fear & Greed Index: 33 (very far from euphoria)

There is no FOMO. Many believe that we started a bear market and left the market.

CATALYST 6: INSTITUTIONS ENTERING

More and more institutions are adopting crypto.

It is expected that in the coming months and years, more banks, companies, and governments will start to adopt crypto. Even buying Bitcoin.

Seeing large institutions buying would be a massive catalyst.

Ultimately, THESE ARE THE ARGUMENTS FOR WHY IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO BE BULLISH:

- Liquidity easing and interest rate cuts
- No clear euphoria in crypto
- Continuous institutional adoption
- Crypto market bill in the U.S.
- Historically excellent Q4s
- Liquidity + stablecoins

However, there are also arguments for being bearish. In fact, more and more crypto investors are positioning themselves as bearish.

The crypto fear and greed indicator has been indicating fear for weeks. This could be the beginning of a bear market or a great opportunity to position oneself before a rise.

THESE ARE THE BEARISH ARGUMENTS:

- AI bubble feeling and other sectors
- Bullish news fails to pump the cryptos
- Uncertainty in crypto
- 4-year historical cycles already indicate the end
- Old OG wallets selling
- Buffet liquidating billions in stocks

Remember that there is no absolute truth and that everyone must conduct their own analyses.

LET'S TALK ABOUT ALTCOINS

For years the game was simple: Bitcoin goes up → Ethereum follows → altcoins explode. Everyone wins.

This is over.

The market shifted from retail to institutional funds that move trillions.

The problem: 90% of crypto projects are still operating as if it were 2021.

They think that marketing, promises, and hype are enough. They are not.

The reality: most altcoins are in losses and will not yield good returns again.

The projects that survive and have given good returns have 3 things:

1. UTILITY

- It is really useful
- It has real users
- Move real money
- Large companies are adopting it

2. THEY ARE A BUSINESS

It must be a profitable business. If they rely on selling their tokens... what happens when they drop 70%?

3. COMMUNITY THAT PERSISTS

When the price drops, does it remain active? Or does it disappear with the hype?

Anyone who does not meet at least one of these requirements is doomed to die. Anyone who does not meet two of these requirements has a good chance of dying.

Example of 2 altcoins that we have accumulated:

- Bittensor $TAO : Decentralized artificial intelligence network
- Hyperliquid $HYPE : Decentralized perpetual futures exchange DEX

They meet the requirements and, as of today, they are really solid. But remember that in crypto, everything can change very quickly; altcoins that were top 4 years ago are now dead.

We would love to hear your opinion: are you bullish or bearish?

And we appreciate any interaction with this post ❤️🔄💬