The U.S. government shutdown leads to the absence of non-farm payroll data, making tonight's ADP "Small Non-Farm" data a key indicator for the employment market

In the "data vacuum" caused by the U.S. government shutdown, the marketplace is eager to find any clues about the labor market. In this context, the upcoming release of the U.S. ADP "Small Non-Farm" data at 20:15 tonight is particularly valuable, as it has become a crucial window to replace the missing official non-farm report and glimpse into the state of U.S. employment.

Currently, the market generally expects October ADP employment to increase by 32,000 jobs. If the data meets expectations, it will mark the first positive growth after consecutive declines in August and September, reversing the previous ADP report which showed companies reduced 32,000 jobs.

However, economists warn that in the absence of official data, private sector survey data may be overestimated by the marketplace. The declining response rate to surveys could also affect the reliability of the data, so it should not be given too much weight.

Additionally, the U.S. ADP "Small Non-Farm" data has a "reverse" effect on U.S. stocks. Some analysts point out that in the current environment of "rate cut trading," the impact of this ADP data on U.S. stocks may need to be viewed "in reverse."

Simply put, weaker-than-expected data could strengthen the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its rate cut pace, which is positive for stocks; conversely, strong data might raise concerns about the Fed slowing down rate cuts, leading to market fluctuations.

Besides the ADP data, other indicators also reveal a complex picture of the employment market. These include weekly unemployment claims, the employment component of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM), and layoffs plans from large technology and manufacturing companies. Together, these indicators highlight the complexity and pressures faced by different sectors of the employment market.

Overall, during this "data fog" period of ongoing official employment statistics absence, investors need to stay alert. They should pay attention to the signals from ADP data while recognizing its limitations.

Rather than relying excessively on a single data point, it’s better to cross-verify it with other scattered employment indicators to form a more comprehensive understanding of the true state of the U.S. labor market.

#ADP数据 # Non-Farm Employment