The big dump in the early morning woke many people from their beds.

Open the trading software, the screen is filled with blood red. The account has shrunk to the point of pain, and there is only one thought left in my mind: what the hell is going on?

Don't rush to blame the manipulators; this time it really can't be explained by conspiracy theories. The driving force behind it is an invisible "capital siphoning."

First, let's talk about the bloodsucking monster that is U.S. Treasuries. With the government shutdown and the Treasury General Account (TGA) running low, the market is already short on cash. Although the Federal Reserve is providing emergency liquidity, this giant beast in the bond market simply cannot be satisfied. In the auctions for three-month and six-month U.S. Treasuries, the nominal scale was $163 billion, but in reality, $170.69 billion was drained away. After deducting the portion reinvested by the Federal Reserve, in just a few days, the financial market was stripped of $163 billion in liquidity.

What is this concept? It's like drawing blood from a human body quickly; who can withstand that? Risk assets are the most sensitive, and Bitcoin is the first to not be able to bear it; a big dump is inevitable.

Worse yet, Federal Reserve official Goolsbee came in for a further blow at this time. His speech continued to sing a hawkish tune, and the market's fantasy of a rate cut in December was directly shattered—the probability of a rate cut plummeted from nearly 70%. It is important to know that rate cut expectations are the lifeline for risk assets; once this lifeline is severed, short-term funds will immediately retreat.

With liquidity tightening and policy expectations cooling, Bitcoin is being pressed down under double blows. Panic spreads, leading to a sell-off and a natural big dump.

But this is not the end of the world.

Once the government resumes operations and the TGA account replenishes funds, it will be like a long-awaited rain in a drought, and liquidity will gradually recover. If the Federal Reserve further eases the overnight reverse repurchase operations and releases some short-term liquidity, the pressure will be further alleviated.

Liquidity has cycles, and price fluctuations have rhythms. Even the coldest winter cannot stop the arrival of spring. When the market is in panic, it's often when opportunities are brewing. Understanding the flow of capital is a thousand times better than obsessing over candlestick charts.