#加密领域市场回调

The crypto market has shown signs of short-term volatility following a steep decline over the past few sessions. After falling to a low near 101,500, Bitcoin began to fluctuate upward during the early hours, reaching an intraday high close to 102,443. Ethereum’s movement remained largely consistent with Bitcoin, rebounding from around 3,353 to a morning peak near 3,414. While this recovery has drawn attention from traders seeking early signs of a reversal, a closer technical examination reveals that the overall structure still reflects weakness rather than a genuine bullish shift.

On the four-hour chart, the market has posted four consecutive bearish candles, followed by this modest rebound. Price action is currently hovering around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands typically a zone that defines temporary equilibrium after oversold conditions. However, this rebound appears to be a technical correction within a broader downtrend. The larger structure continues to exhibit bearish dominance, and traders should remain cautious against assuming that the short-term rise represents a trend reversal.

A deeper look into the one-hour chart shows a three-candle bullish formation, with price attempting to break above the middle Bollinger Band. Despite this localized momentum, the overarching descending channel on higher timeframes remains intact. This suggests that the market is still trapped within a bearish framework, and any upward movement is likely to encounter significant resistance near previous highs. In simpler terms, what we are witnessing now is a counter-trend rebound, not the beginning of a new bullish cycle.

From a strategic standpoint, the Sunday morning trading plan remains tilted toward a short bias. For Bitcoin, potential short positions could be considered near the 103,000 zone, targeting a pullback toward 101,500–101,000. For Ethereum, an ideal short entry may lie near 3,450, aiming for a downside target between 3,350–3,300. It’s essential, however, to treat these ranges as dynamic zones rather than fixed figures, as rapid fluctuations in volume and sentiment can quickly alter short-term momentum.

Risk management remains the top priority in this environment. The crypto market is characterized by its fast and unpredictable movements a sudden surge in liquidity or a macroeconomic headline can invalidate setups in minutes. Therefore, each position should be guided by clearly defined stop-loss levels and prudent exposure sizing.

In broader terms, this market phase highlights the psychological tug-of-war between fading optimism and persistent caution. Bulls are attempting to reclaim lost ground through short-lived rebounds, while bears continue to control the long-term narrative. Until Bitcoin decisively breaks above the upper boundary of its descending channel and sustains momentum with strong volume, the overall bias remains bearish.

This is a period where patience outweighs aggression. Chasing temporary rebounds may lead to unnecessary losses, while disciplined observation and timely execution can yield better opportunities once the market confirms a clearer direction. The current uptick is a technical respite, not a reversal a subtle but crucial distinction that separates experienced traders from impulsive ones.