If we talk about a real bubble, it would be in 2023 or 2024, where a "rudimentary" model like ChatGPT 3 and 4 could raise Nvidia by 10 times, with a price-to-earnings ratio valuation of over a hundred times.

On the contrary, the performance from 2025 to now has been a year of "verification", and the bubble has not continued to expand.

The four major investors paying for AI data centers in the market are: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. The overall valuation is around 26 times, far lower than the 70 times for the internet.

And...
More importantly, the performance of tech giants has not been uniform in rising and falling; there is still a huge differentiation in performance. Google, due to its dominance in both hardware and software, has shown a king's return in AI, and its previously lagging valuation has achieved a 55% annualized return in 2025.

Both Amazon, which has a high valuation but low growth, and Meta, which has high growth but poor AI cloud revenue, have significantly underperformed in annual returns and have basically not increased throughout the year.

In all the major downturns I have experienced, I have never seen such a rational market in 25 years. The Capex of AI is still in the investment phase, and the business models are unfolding one by one. How can it be falsified?

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