The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the market will focus on the "dot plot" to speculate on the interest rate trend in 2026.

On December 1, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will attend an event at Stanford University in memory of the late George Shultz and deliver a speech. However, since the Fed is in a communication blackout period before the decision, he will not discuss economic issues. With no further official statements before next Wednesday's interest rate decision, traders are currently predicting that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by another 25 basis points is close to 90%. If this rate cut occurs, the market will focus on the Fed's updated “dot plot” for clues about the interest rate trajectory in 2026.