In a few hours, the FOMC results will be announced. The market currently largely considers a 25bp rate cut as a given, and in fact, this expectation has already been priced in. The real uncertainties remaining are actually twofold— the stance of the dot plot and Powell’s statements. At this stage, making a directional move is similar to gambling on size; if you get the direction right, it's satisfying, but if wrong, you get swept away. The initiative is actually in your own hands—you can either stay completely flat and wait for things to settle, or preemptively close positions to capitalize on a rally, then exit once it reaches your target price; or you can place high-level short orders in advance, letting the market hit your orders. Just don’t chase the K-line recklessly.

My personal assessment is— the market is likely to rally first on the back of this rate cut, clearing out the most concentrated short positions, such as around 98,000 to 99,000, shedding some of those who opened shorts early. If you see a sudden surge, don’t panic; it might be a deliberate move to shake out shorts. If it truly rises, it probably won’t last long. Next week, the Bank of Japan also has a meeting, which could introduce new uncertainties. The market will find it difficult to move in a single direction all the way through. So, the current approach for these days is to prioritize caution, avoid being driven by emotions, and think through your risk positions in advance.