#CryptoMarketWatch

December 19, 2025 | $BTC Market Structure
#市场触底了吗？
Bitcoin remains firmly positioned within a short-term downtrend. Every recent rebound attempt has been capped by selling pressure, confirming that bears are still in control. From both a technical and structural perspective, momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI continue to align with bearish price action, reinforcing the prevailing downward bias.

Market Structure & Trend

Price structure shows lower highs and weak recoveries, indicating that demand is not strong enough to absorb sell-side pressure. Momentum indicators remain subdued, and until a clear shift occurs, the market should be treated as corrective rather than reversing.

Key Resistance Zones (must be reclaimed to ease downside pressure)

1. $88,533 – The most recent swing high and the origin of the latest aggressive sell-off. This level represents the first major barrier for any recovery attempt.

2. $87,200 – $87,900 – A confluence resistance zone near the slower EMA and a previous consolidation area, acting as dynamic resistance.

3. $89,500 – A strong structural resistance and the prior major high. Only a decisive breakout and acceptance above this level would signal a potential short-term trend shift.

Key Support Zones (loss of these may accelerate decline)

1. $84,450 – The latest swing low and the lower boundary of the current consolidation range. A breakdown here would weaken structure further.

2. $84,000 – A critical psychological level. Losing this support could trigger renewed panic selling.

3. $83,000 – The next notable support derived from previous market structure and historical reactions.
Trading Perspective & Strategy Considerations

For bullish participants: Current conditions do not favor aggressive long entries. A safer approach would be to wait for a confirmed breakout above $88,500 with strong volume, accompanied by a MACD bullish crossover and RSI reclaiming the 50 level. Without these confirmations, upside moves remain corrective.

For bearish participants: The downtrend is still intact. Potential short setups may appear on price rejection around the $86,800 – $87,200 EMA region, or after a confirmed breakdown below $84,450 with expanding momentum. Risk should be managed strictly, with stop-loss levels placed above key resistance zones.

For neutral observers: Market sentiment remains cautious and skewed bearish. The $84,450 – $87,200 range is the critical zone to monitor. Avoid premature bottom-fishing until clear reversal signals emerge, such as strong bullish volume expansion, structural reclaim, or MACD bullish divergence.
Risk Reminder

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. This analysis is based on the 4-hour timeframe, and short-term fluctuations may intensify unexpectedly. Always align lower-timeframe analysis with higher-timeframe trends, such as the daily chart, and remain attentive to real-time macro and market news. Strict risk management is essential in the current environment.