As 2025 approaches its end, traditionally, the last quarter is supposed to be a window for the crypto market to surge. History shows that December usually triggers a new rally—Bitcoin breaks out of long-term consolidation, and the downtrend reverses, almost becoming a fixed script at year-end. But this year, it seems the script has changed. Bulls keep trying but can't break through key levels, market volatility is decreasing, and traders are collectively adopting a wait-and-see stance. Neither Bitcoin nor altcoins are giving clear signals; everyone is waiting for an external factor to break the deadlock.

Turning our attention to the US economy, recent data reveal some interesting signals. On one hand, inflationary pressures are indeed easing—December's Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 52.9, slightly better than November. But looking at data from a year ago, the current confidence index is still nearly 30% lower, indicating consumers are not as optimistic. On the other hand, inflation expectations are falling rapidly: short-term expectations dropped to 4.2%, and long-term expectations fell to 3.2%.

The most critical point here is—despite weak consumer confidence, inflation expectations are actually more noteworthy. Central banks care not about people's current mood but about households' judgments on future prices. The decline in expectations indicates one thing: people are beginning to believe that price pressures can be controlled. This gives the Federal Reserve room to maneuver, potentially suppressing inflation without maintaining high interest rates for the long term—what industry calls a "soft landing."

November's CPI data further confirms this, showing inflation is decelerating faster than market expectations. The two signals combined send a clear message: the momentum of inflation is waning. What does this mean for Bitcoin? This is the variable that needs close attention in the coming days.