The Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision window opens, with market attention at an all-time high. According to the latest CME interest rate expectation data, the probability of the Fed directly cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is locked at 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged reaches 77.9%.

Although, from the numbers, "maintaining unchanged" remains the mainstream expectation, this 22.1% chance of a rate cut is already quite interesting. The over 20% expectation of a cut appearing at the January meeting indicates that the market is re-evaluating inflation trends and economic outlooks. From traders and institutional perspectives, signals of cooling inflation combined with slowing economic growth are quietly shifting the Fed's policy stance. This is no longer simply a question of "will they cut rates," but gradually evolving into a game of "when to start the rate-cutting cycle."

Historical experience tells us that any policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve will trigger a chain reaction in global markets. Traditional assets like US stocks, bonds, and gold are the first to be affected, but this impact will also directly influence capital flows and market expectations for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. From on-chain data and institutional movements, smart money is already positioning itself in advance, preparing for potential liquidity changes.

Currently, the market is at a delicate balance point. Whether the January FOMC meeting will result in a routine policy hold or an unexpected shift will directly influence the short-term performance of cryptocurrencies. For traders, the key is to monitor inflation data, employment reports, and other leading indicators to prepare for any potential policy changes in advance.