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Recently, a significant turning point has emerged in the global financial markets — Japan's economic data has just set a 30-year record.
The CPI inflation rate has risen to 2.8%. This figure may seem ordinary, but its implications are astonishing: Japan has achieved "inflation surpassing" the United States for the first time since 1979 (the current rate in the U.S. is 2.7%). What does this mean? The decades-long era of deflation has officially come to an end, and the most important "source of cheap funds" in the global financial markets is closing its doors.
More critical actions are on the way. In response to the pressure of rising domestic interest rates, Japan plans to sell $530 billion worth of U.S. stock assets. This is no small matter—once implemented, it will create a large-scale "liquidity withdrawal," making it difficult for global high-risk assets to escape unscathed.
How severe will this chain reaction be? Let's take a look at a few dimensions. First, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has already broken 2%, reaching a new high since 1999. This directly means that global capital relying on yen arbitrage must accelerate its return, and assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks will lose their most critical buyer support. Second, the Bank of Japan's policy orientation will inevitably shift from "diverging from the Federal Reserve" to "tightening in sync with the Federal Reserve," and the pace of global liquidity withdrawal may be much faster than expected. Finally, this pressure will quickly spread along the market transmission chain: the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries puts pressure on U.S. stocks, the volatility in U.S. stocks triggers liquidity exhaustion in high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), and volatility rises across the board.
History textbooks tell us that once an economy that has been continuously supplying cheap liquidity to the world starts to reverse this flow, all trading strategies dependent on such arbitrage logic will face reevaluation. Whether in traditional financial markets or the cryptocurrency space, it is crucial to closely monitor the following signals: the Japanese central bank's statements on specific selling plans, how U.S. Treasury yields interact with the dollar index, and whether the outflow of spot trading from exchanges accelerates.
This global capital restructuring triggered by Japan has just begun; fastening your seatbelt is much more reliable than remedying the situation afterwards.