I recently came across an analysis about prediction markets, which resonated with me. Ultimately, the core reason why prediction markets can reveal the truth lies here—emotion does not equal judgment.

There are indeed many people shouting slogans on social media. Those emotional voices spread the fastest and generate the most heat. But here’s a key point: winning a stance does not mean the facts are correct. Most of the time, those who are most active in the comments section are few who actually bet real money.

In contrast, prediction markets are different. Low-probability options often help participants calm down. When you really have to put your money on the line, those previously heated judgments naturally fade away. In the long run, those who can persist in the market are often the ones whose judgments are relatively accurate. Given enough time, the noise fades away, and what remains is inevitably a more rational voice. The price discovery process of ETH reflects this.