The calm before the storm may be right in front of us.

As liquidity becomes increasingly scarce and institutional investors are frantically buying, any pullback could turn into an excellent opportunity to get on board. Sounds a bit familiar, right?

Looking back at the early days of Bitcoin, there were dedicated "faucet" websites distributing Bitcoin for free back in 2010. It is completely different now — we are witnessing a historic shift, with over 80% of Bitcoin supply already caught in a liquidity crisis.

Fidelity Digital Assets recently referred to this phenomenon as the "super scarcity" era, driven by a "dual engine." One engine is the halving mechanism, which reduces the daily new supply from 900 coins to 450 coins; the other engine is the steadfast lock-up of long-term holders, who tightly hold over 80% of the circulating supply.

**The Digital Truth of Liquidity Drought**

This is not just talk. As of September 2025, on-chain data shows that over 15.8 million bitcoins (representing 80.5% of the total circulating supply) have been classified as "illiquid". These coins are firmly held by long-term holders and are unlikely to flow into the market.

How to determine if a wallet is a true "believer"? It's simple - check if the amount of Bitcoin sold in its history is less than 75% of the total amount bought. This straightforward definition accurately identifies the true holders in the market.

The Bitcoin reserves of exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since 2019. A large number of Bitcoins are continuously moving from exchanges to private wallets and cold storage, and the daily average flow of exchanges has dropped to around 40,000 coins, setting a new low in nearly a decade.

Interestingly, even when the price of the coin reaches new highs, investors tend to prefer holding long-term rather than frequently trading. This shift in mindset may explain the situation better than any data.