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AST, ICP, ZEC and other coins have recently attracted a lot of attention, and this week happens to be a window for observing the crypto market at the end of the year. Several important economic data releases are imminent, which may directly affect the trends of digital assets.
On Tuesday, the U.S. GDP growth rate and PCE price index will be released simultaneously. The former reflects the economic fundamentals, while the latter measures inflationary pressures. The combination of these data is crucial—if the economy slows down but inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts will be limited, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if both data points perform moderately, indicating an economic "soft landing," risk assets may see an upward opportunity.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes and the U.S. initial jobless claims data will follow one after another. Any signals of a shift in central bank policy, combined with the real-time performance of the U.S. labor market, could be amplified in the context of weaker liquidity before the holiday, triggering market volatility.
During the Christmas period on Thursday, most major global markets will be closed, and trading liquidity will significantly shrink. This means that the impact of prior data will take longer to digest, which could both present an opportunity for low-level positioning and hide the risk of unilateral fluctuations.
In the long term, the crypto market is facing a tug-of-war between two forces: one is the ongoing warming expectation for Bitcoin spot ETFs early next year (a long-term positive), and the other is the short-term sensitivity to Federal Reserve policies and economic data. This week's data release is essentially a short-term confrontation between these two forces.
Market participants need to clarify their own rhythm - whether they believe that big opportunities are still ahead and choose to accumulate positions on dips, or opt for a wait-and-see strategy amidst year-end fluctuations, which varies from person to person. The direction of this week is likely to set the tone for the year-end market.