#美联储政策 The issuance of US short-term Treasury bonds has reached a dangerous level. In the past 12 months, T-Bills issued have reached $25.4 trillion, accounting for 69.4% of total Treasury issuance—this ratio is close to the historical high.

The issue behind the data is clear: the U.S. government is using short-term debt with a maturity of a few months to roll over long-term debt, which poses a typical maturity mismatch risk. Once the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes due to inflation, the cost of interest will rise sharply.

From an on-chain perspective, this macro risk will gradually transmit to market expectations. Rising debt costs → increased fiscal pressure → greater policy uncertainty, all of which will affect the allocation decisions of institutional funds. It is important to pay close attention to the movements of large funds in stablecoins and derivatives related to U.S. Treasuries, as the flow of these funds often reflects anticipations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

In the short term, the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts is limited, and this constraint will not change quickly.