The recent market situation is indeed a bit strange - Bitcoin has fallen below 86000 USD, and gold has not been spared, also experiencing a significant decline. This situation is not common in history; usually, when risk assets are under pressure, traditional safe-haven tools like gold should react accordingly. But why has there been a collective decline this time?

The answer is actually very simple and straightforward: there is a serious lack of market liquidity.

When investors face cash pressure, they do not distinguish between what is a risk asset and what is a safe-haven asset; any asset they can sell will be liquidated. Bitcoin must be sold, gold must also be sold, and even those seemingly safe items cannot escape. Everyone has one goal – to return cash. This is the manifestation of what is known as a "systemic liquidity crisis."

So the question arises: what is the true safe-haven asset right now?

It's not Bitcoin, nor gold. The answer is cash, short-term government bonds, and money market funds—highly liquid assets that can be easily converted. Just look at the recent performance of the U.S. dollar index, and you'll understand; it has been consistently strong, which precisely indicates that international capital is fleeing emerging markets and desperately flowing into the United States. As a result, the asset valuations in emerging markets are generally under pressure, causing a chain reaction.

From a more macro perspective, if the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a hawkish stance without any easing, this wave of liquidity crisis is likely to spread to the corporate debt sector, triggering a series of default risks. At this point, the focus is no longer on how to make big money, but on how to protect the existing principal.

In such a market environment, making investment decisions requires a shift in thinking—conservative allocation, prioritizing liquidity and safety margins, is the most pragmatic choice at present.