#比特币市场动态 Bitcoin is competing for the 80,000 mark at the end of the year, and the logic behind the adjustments in institutional target prices is worth clarifying.

Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its target from $200,000 to $100,000 (with the target time changed to the end of 2025), primarily due to the adoption rate of institutional ETFs being lower than expected. This signal is critical—it indicates that the FOMO driven by retail investors is no longer sufficient to support high expectations, and true institutional inflow is needed to take over.

In line with Ansem's December 80,000 test prediction, the current market is indeed in a period of consolidation. From an on-chain perspective, the flow of funds during this time window is very important: if large transfers continue to flow out of exchanges, it indicates that whales are gradually positioning themselves; conversely, one should be cautious of short-term downside risks.

Key observation points focus on two dimensions: first, whether the pace of institutional entry has really slowed down (which can be verified from ETF net inflow data), and second, the ability of retail investors to carry the baton. The adjustment of target prices essentially reflects the market's expectations of cooling demand rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.

In the short term, 80,000 is a necessary support level; if it can't hold, the risk of testing 70,000 increases. It is recommended to pay attention to the monthly closing and changes in contract positions, as these two indicators will reflect directional choices in advance.