Bitcoin's migration to the post-quantum era: a "simple" evolution that requires 5-10 years?

Jameson Lopp, co-founder of the Bitcoin custody company Casa, publicly stated that a comprehensive transformation of Bitcoin for the post-Quantum Computing era, as well as unprecedented capital migration, could take 5 to 10 years. He hopes that the development of Quantum Computing will stall, as this technological migration “will be very tricky.”

On December 22, 2025, according to Gate.io market data, the BTC price is reported at $89,138, while beneath the surface of a calm trading day, the market is digesting this long-term, fundamental technical challenge.

01 Quantum Threat: The Countdown from Theory to Reality

The threat of Quantum Computing is no longer a science fiction scenario for cryptocurrencies. The foundation of Bitcoin is built on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which theoretically has the risk of being broken by Shor's algorithm when faced with sufficiently powerful quantum computers.

This means that once quantum computing reaches a certain stage, an attacker may be able to deduce the private key from the exposed public key, thereby stealing assets.

Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, cited research from renowned quantum theorist Scott Aaronson, stating that quantum computing has only engineering challenges left to crack Bitcoin, rather than fundamental physics barriers.

Charles Edwards, the founder of the quantum asset management company Capriole, has made a more urgent prediction, stating that the Bitcoin network may face the risk of being cracked within 2 to 9 years, especially within 4 to 5 years, if it does not upgrade.

02 Exposed Assets and Current Vulnerabilities

Not all Bitcoins are equally vulnerable. The risks are mainly concentrated on addresses that have exposed their public keys on the chain (for example, addresses that have spent funds). It is estimated that this affects about 25% of the total existing Bitcoin supply.

Nic Carter further warned that even if Bitcoin successfully upgrades to post-quantum signatures, it still faces the risk of approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins being stolen by quantum attackers, as these coins may be stored in abandoned vulnerable addresses.

A noteworthy market phenomenon is that the usage of Bitcoin's latest Taproot transaction format (recognized for its potential quantum vulnerability) is significantly declining, dropping from 42% of transactions in 2024 to only 20%. This may reflect some users' forward-looking concerns.

03 Technical Path: Migration Plan Proposed by the Community

In the face of threats, the tech community has proposed specific solutions. A BIP draft put forward by several developers, including Jameson Lopp, has garnered significant attention.

The proposal aims to achieve quantum protection for the Bitcoin network by 2030 through a three-phase, multi-year process.

The core migration steps can be summarized as:

• Phase A: Prohibit funds from being sent to quantum vulnerable old addresses.
• Phase B: Render the ECDSA signature spending of quantum vulnerable UTXO invalid.
• Phase C: Develop quantum-safe recovery mechanisms for old wallets that have not been migrated in time.

At the cryptographic level, hash-based signature schemes (such as Lamport signatures, XMSS, etc.) are considered promising post-quantum alternatives. Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, also proposed a new hash-based signature scheme whose security relies entirely on the hash function assumptions used by the Bitcoin network.

Table: Main Technical Solutions for Bitcoin's Transition to the Post-Quantum Era

04 The Difficulty of Consensus: The Social Engineering of Technological Upgrades

The implementation of the technical solution goes far beyond code. Charles Edwards emphasized that the implementation of the new standard requires a broader consensus among hardware wallet providers, node operators, and cryptocurrency exchanges. He boldly advocated that by 2028, all coins that have not migrated to BIP-360 should be destroyed.

This perspective reveals that the essence of the upgrade is a massive social collaboration. An orderly migration requires the joint action of tens of millions of address owners holding balances.

The more extreme dilemma is that, in order to completely eliminate the risk, the Bitcoin community may need to make a historic decision on whether to “seize” the 1.7 million Bitcoins that may be abandoned in vulnerable addresses.

05 Market Outlook: Short-term Fluctuations Under Long-term Narratives

Although experts believe that quantum computers will not crack the Bitcoin network in the short term, market sentiment may react ahead of the actual threat. Charles Edwards points out that the awareness of future “quantum threats” may itself become a market risk.

Historical experience shows that significant news related to security often triggers short-term market fluctuations. If discussions about quantum threats heat up, the market may experience panic selling, testing key support levels, while also creating opportunities for investors who are optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term evolution capabilities.

From the current price of $89,138 for BTC on Gate, the market has not significantly priced in the future quantum risks. Successful, forward-looking upgrades will be seen as a major boost to the resilience and evolutionary capability of the Bitcoin network, potentially attracting more long-term capital.

Future Outlook

For investors, the countdown to Bitcoin's post-quantum migration has already begun. With each step forward in the cracking capability of quantum computers, the core ECDSA algorithm of the Bitcoin network will face a prolonged battle of offense and defense in the coming years.

Currently, security risks still exist at the theoretical level, but the market's expectations regarding quantum threats have already begun to affect traders' mentality. The threats posed by Quantum Computing are no longer just a technical issue; they have become a significant narrative variable stirring the market in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.