2025-12-22 15:23:19

The expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in January is shrinking. Last week, there was a 31% probability, now it has fallen to less than 20%. Looking at the data for March—the probability of maintaining the interest rate is close to 45%, which means that the real rate cut window may have to wait until the second half of the year.

To be honest, many people are looking at the market now and want to build positions in batches, thinking this is the bottom. But frankly speaking, buying the dip at this time is actually gambling, not investing. When uncertainty is so high, the smartest move is to protect your principal.

Instead of guessing, it's better to wait. The FOMC meetings on January 28 and March 18 are key points; it's not too late to make a decision after the data is released. There's no need to rush.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
2
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DaoDeveloper

· 12-22 15:54

honestly the fed's playing 4d chess while everyone's just looking at the chart bouncing around. those probabilities dropping from 31% to under 20% aren't just numbers—it's the market repricing the entire narrative. the protocol here is clear: wait for the actual execution events (jan 28 & mar 18) before you commit capital. rushing in rn is like deploying unaudited code to mainnet lmao

Reply0

SchrodingerGas

· 12-22 15:45

This is a typical case of asymmetric information game. Those who are buying the dip are betting on the Fed's hawkish turn, but the on-chain capital flow doesn't speak at all. Wait, this logic is actually reversed. A drop from 31% to 20% in probability indicates that the market pricing is becoming clearer, so why are there still people going all-in at this time? Who dared to take real action before January 28? The uncertainty cost of the FOMC is higher than the arbitrage space. In simple terms, the strategy of preserving capital is the strongest, better than any technical analysis.

View OriginalReply0