The SOL market data appears calm, but there's a lot of commotion on-chain. A certain Address staked 1.17 million SOL all at once 20 minutes ago, equivalent to 148 million USD. This operation instantly sparked heated discussions—could it be a Lock-up Position by diamond hands who are bullish in the long term, or a desperate move after being trapped?

From an on-chain perspective, staking means that the liquidity of this portion of SOL disappears in the short term, theoretically reducing market selling pressure. But conversely, why do large holders choose to stake now instead of waiting or liquidating? It's likely because they feel there is little hope for a short-term rebound; rather than sitting idle, they would prefer to lock up and earn interest while remaining passive. This may not necessarily be good news for retail investors—it's likely just a passive defense by the whales.

Looking at the technical aspect, danger signals are frequently appearing. The price is firmly stuck at the 125 level, with the MACD showing a death cross below the waterline and the green bars turning red while the volume continues to shrink. The upper resistance zones are at 130 and 134, while the short-term support and strong support bottom lines are at 121 and 116, respectively. What’s most disheartening is that the sell orders are clearly thicker than the buy orders, making every rebound seem powerless, a typical rhythm of a downward grind.

The longer the key level oscillates, the more explosive the direction will be once chosen. From the current situation, SOL is likely to be under pressure and move downward first. Although the staking benefits theoretically reduce selling pressure, they do not change the overall downward trend in the short term. The main players are likely to use the staking news to create a false appearance of a rebound to lure retail investors into buying before dumping.

If the market slightly rebounds to the 127-130 range, beware of the possibility of a quick drop to 121.