The recent trend of gold (XAU) is quite interesting. After breaking through the rectangular trading range some time ago, it has formed a clear rising channel. The 30-minute chart also shows a rising wedge acceleration pattern, indicating that the tone for a significant rise has already been established.

However, things started to get interesting at the 4500 mark. This position is both the upper edge of the trend channel and the upper edge of the wedge, creating considerable stacked pressure. When the price hits here, a divergence signal appeared on the 1-hour chart, and small candlesticks showed a doji and a small bearish candle near 4500, all of which are signs of stagnation, indicating that the upward momentum in the short cycle has begun to wane.

Interestingly, around December 13th, a similar pattern and indicator resonance signal appeared, after which the market entered a consolidation phase. This signal has emerged at a higher price level, making the risk more apparent. The divergence between short-term stagnation and long-term pattern indicators has formed a resonance, making it highly likely to shift from a unilateral rise to a correction or consolidation.

Technically speaking, there may be one last wave to test the 4500 level in the short term, but due to the pressure from the 1-hour chart patterns and indicators, it will be difficult to sustain a rise after the peak, and a quick pullback is highly likely. The overall market is dominated by the 1-hour cycle, and the first target for the pullback is to focus on 4450. If this support fails, we will need to further explore the resonance support level at 4405.