[Supply reduction combined with trade disruptions, copper prices near $12,000/ton]

Affected by supply disruptions and trade turmoil caused by tariffs, international copper prices have continued to rise strongly for several months, gradually approaching the $12,000 per ton mark, with expectations of setting a new historical high. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price rose 0.4% that day, close to the historical high of $11,996 per ton reached on Monday.

The current round of price increase is mainly driven by tight supply: Copper mine production is constrained by factors such as declining ore grades, project delays, labor issues, and environmental regulations, compounded by disruptions in the smelting process, which have raised market concerns; changes in trade policies have altered the flow of resources, exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch. On the demand side, the incremental demand for electricity, energy storage, and electric vehicles brought about by the transition to new energy supports copper prices, while traditional sectors have experienced fluctuations but have not shown significant weakness.

Since the beginning of this year, copper prices have risen by about 37%, likely to create the largest annual increase since 2009. In the short term, $12,000 per ton will be a key threshold; a breakthrough may trigger further upward movement, while a blockage could lead to profit-taking and corrections. Attention should be paid to the recovery of copper mine supply, inventory changes, and policy trends in major consuming countries.