Sterling Faces Fresh Headwinds as Fed Rate Bets Cool Ahead of Delayed Jobs Report

2025-12-24 23:05:52

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Wednesday’s Pound Sterling decline signals growing market caution around upcoming US employment data gaps. The British currency retreated approximately 0.67% to break through the 1.3060 level, marking a fourth consecutive session of losses for GBP/USD. This translates roughly to 8 GBP converting to around 10.45 USD at current levels.

UK Inflation Data Fails to Support Cable Recovery

The release of Wednesday’s UK Consumer Price Index inflation figures did little to stabilize Pound Sterling demand. Market participants had anticipated this data might reignite interest in GBP/USD, but instead the report deepened selling pressure. Cable continues to track lower, unable to find solid footing even after the economic indicator crossed the wires.

US Employment Report Delayed, Fed Expectations Shift

The backdrop for sterling weakness extends beyond UK developments. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it would postpone October’s Nonfarm Payrolls release due to data collection disruptions from recent government operations. This administrative hiatus leaves traders facing a significant information vacuum.

The consequences are already visible in rate markets. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have shifted notably lower. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, probability of a Fed rate cut materializing on December 10 has compressed to roughly 30%—a meaningful pullback from earlier expectations. With an October employment gap now confirmed, policymakers face limited visibility into labor market conditions until year-end.

September NFP Awaits Thursday Release

September’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Thursday’s publication. Market analysts acknowledge this Friday jobs report will likely struggle for traction, since the upcoming October data void means meaningful policy signals may not emerge until 2025. GBP/USD traders continue monitoring both employment flows and broader Fed guidance as they reassess positioning heading into year-end.

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