Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Gains Traction as Delayed September NFP Looms Large Over Markets

Yellow metal climbs to $4,110 amid labor market uncertainty. The precious metal is finding fresh buying interest in early Thursday trading as investors navigate a complex landscape shaped by delayed employment data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve.

The September jobs report finally arrives, but expectations have shifted dramatically. The delayed release of the US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)—postponed by a 43-day government shutdown—remains the focal point for market participants. This delayed publication has created unusual uncertainty about the true health of the American labor market, which directly influences both safe-haven demand and rate-cut probabilities.

Fed officials remain split on the interest rate path ahead. According to minutes from the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, policymakers are cautious and internally divided about the next move. While the Fed delivered a 25 basis point rate cut, the decision was contested, with some members questioning whether December should see another reduction.

Gold price prediction hinges on employment data and rate expectations. A disappointing jobs report could reinforce the case for a December rate cut, which would bolster non-yielding assets like gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them. Conversely, stronger-than-expected employment figures might dampen rate-cut enthusiasm and weigh on the precious metal.

Market expectations for Fed action have cooled considerably. CME FedWatch data reveals a dramatic shift: the probability of a December rate cut has slid to approximately 30%, down sharply from 60% just one week prior. This retreat in rate-cut odds reflects growing debate within the Fed’s ranks about whether further stimulus is warranted given current economic conditions.

For gold investors monitoring the XAU/USD pair near $4,110, the coming hours present a critical juncture where employment data could either validate safe-haven demand or trigger profit-taking depending on the strength of the reported numbers.