## Can the US Dollar Maintain Its Strength? September Non-Farm Data Will Be the Key Turning Point

On Thursday at 13:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), which could be a watershed for the USD and EUR/USD trend. Market expectations are for non-farm employment to increase by 50,000, a significant rebound from August's 22,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings expected to remain flat at 3.7% year-over-year.

**What Is the Market Waiting For?**

The Fed's rate cut expectations are reshaping the dollar's trajectory. Due to recent cautious comments from the Federal Reserve and weak private sector employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in December have been significantly lowered—from 50% to 33%. This upcoming September employment report may be the most comprehensive labor market reference before the Fed's December decision, and its importance is self-evident.

TD Securities analysts forecast that private non-farm employment in September could increase by 125,000, while government employment might decrease by 25,000. If the actual data is positive, the Fed will have more reason to hold steady, and the dollar could receive strong support.

**Dual Scenarios for Employment Data**

**Bearish Scenario**: If non-farm employment is below 50,000 and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, it will confirm a soft U.S. labor market. This could reignite market bets on a December rate cut, putting downward pressure on the dollar, with EUR/USD potentially breaking above 1.1700.

**Bullish Scenario**: If the data shows significant employment growth and the unemployment rate remains low or even declines, strong labor market data will dispel rate cut expectations, strengthening the dollar, and EUR/USD could fall below 1.1400. For traders seeking low wages and high returns, such positive news offers better entry opportunities.

**Current Technical Warning Signals**

EUR/USD has broken below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1574. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the midline on the daily chart, indicating a bearish technical bias. The next support level is at 1.1469 (November 5 low). If this level is broken, the 200-day SMA at 1.1395 will be tested.

For a rebound to be considered valid, it must be confirmed above the 21-day SMA, targeting around 1.1650 (the intersection of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs). Further upward movement could test the psychological level at 1.1700. The 1.1350 level is a key psychological support for buyers.

**Background of Recent Data**

Recent economic data has been mixed. U.S. private sector (ADP) October employment added only 42,000 jobs, slightly above expectations; however, Challenger data showed a 183.1% monthly increase in announced layoffs, the worst October in over 20 years. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, below the forecast of 49.5, but the Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.4.

These mixed signals remind traders that the labor market is at a delicate turning point. The September non-farm data will provide the most direct answer.

**How Should Traders Prepare?**

Regardless of the data, volatility will increase significantly. Bulls should defend support at 1.1350, expecting continued downside below 1.1400; bears should hold at 1.1650, and consider reducing positions if a breakout above occurs. The key is to manage positions carefully before the data release, prepare for both scenarios, and prevent missing out on potential gains from low wages and high returns.