Pantera Capital: 12 Predictions for the Cryptocurrency Market in 2026

Source: Pantera Capital

Author: Jay Yu (@0xfishylosopher)

Translation and compilation: BitpushNews

Happy holidays to everyone, and peace on Christmas Eve! It’s that time of year again—the prediction season. Here are my 12 predictions for the crypto market in 2026.

1 – Capital-Efficient Consumer Credit

Capital-efficient consumer credit will be the next frontier in crypto lending. They will combine complex on-chain and off-chain credit models, modular design and collateral management, and AI learning of user behavior, all packaged into an easily accessible application.

2 – Divergence of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets will evolve in two very different directions—“financial” and “cultural.” In the financial realm, prediction markets will become more composable with DeFi, offering easier leverage access, implementing liquidity staking, and creating nearly refined “option” tools. Cultural markets will be more inclined to capture the imagination of the masses, with more regional differences, serving long-tail enthusiasts.

3 – Rise of x402-Based Intelligent Agent Commerce

Intelligent agent commerce using endpoints like x402 will expand into more service areas. While the core appeal of intelligent agent commerce remains small payments, x402 will increasingly be used as a framework for routine payments—mechanically similar to Apple Pay. Some websites may see over 50% of their transaction volume and revenue coming from x402 payments. On the small-scale transaction volume level, Solana will surpass Base.

4 – AI as the Interface Layer for Crypto Interaction

AI-mediated transaction loops will become mainstream. While fully autonomous trading AI based on large language models remains experimental, AI-assisted analysis of crypto trends, specific projects, and wallet tracking will gradually permeate user flows in most consumer-facing crypto applications.

5 – Rise of Tokenized Gold

Trading volume of tokenized gold will grow, becoming a leading asset in the wave of real-world assets (RWA). Tokenized gold can circumvent restrictions imposed by various jurisdictions on physical gold, and against the backdrop of structural issues with the US dollar, it will become an increasingly attractive store of value.

6 – BTC “Quantum Panic”

There will be a “quantum panic” (possibly triggered by a technological breakthrough), prompting many BTC holders in institutions to discuss contingency plans for quantum computing. The resistance of BTC and early Satoshi-era coins will be under scrutiny. Fortunately, the technology is not yet sufficient to pose any real threat to value.

7 – Unified Privacy Development Experience

With the ongoing development of frameworks like Ethereum’s Kohaku, privacy will gain a unified, developer-friendly interface. Its development path will resemble the previous cycle’s “wallet-as-a-service” platforms—offering an application-level product that abstracts various technical connectors. We may see companies offering “Privacy-as-a-Service” bundles (possibly including wallets), mainly targeting enterprise workflows.

8 – Integration of DAT (Digital Asset Funds)

Each major category will consolidate only 2-3 DATs. This may be achieved through unlocking/releasing liquidity, converting into ETF-style products, or through mergers and acquisitions among DATs.

9 – Dissolution of Token and Equity Boundaries

“Governance” crypto tokens without legal control over companies will face survival crises. We will see more high-quality companies choosing to remain “private” for longer periods. Perhaps we will see exchangeable equity tokens, and regulatory frameworks around token legal ownership will be strengthened.

10 – Hyperliquid Maintains Dominance in Perpetual Contract DEXs

Perpetual contract DEXs will consolidate, with Hyperliquid maintaining market dominance. The HIP3 market will be a primary driver of trading volume, and interest-bearing stablecoins will become first-class citizens on HYPE (Hyperliquid ecosystem), for example via HyENA. USDC’s dominance on HYPE will be replaced by USDe and USDH.

11 – Prop AMM (Oracle-Driven AMM) Goes Multi-Chain

Prop AMMs will be deployed across multiple chains, accounting for over half of the trading volume on Solana. They will also be used to price more assets, such as RWAs.

12 – Stablecoins as International Payment Flows

An increasing number of existing fintech companies (like Stripe, Ramp, Brex, Klarna) will use stablecoins for their international payment flows. Stablecoin chains like Tempo will become the main entry point for fiat currency into crypto—accepting fiat payments first, then converting to stablecoins for settlement.

As always, these contents are for educational reference only and do not constitute financial advice. Please be sure to DYOR!