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This wave of market activity has been quite exhausting—watching the chart bounce back and forth between 2940 and 3020, just an eighty-dollar range, with both bulls and bears seemingly worn out. Up and down, up and down, it’s like repeating the same actions over and over.
When there’s no movement, it suddenly jitters twice; just as it looks like it’s about to break through, it pulls back again. This kind of situation is the easiest to trigger trading desires, especially for beginners, but even seasoned traders can’t help but get itchy. At this moment, patience is most tested—the more directionless the market, the more you need to calm down and clarify your thoughts.
Looking at the broader environment, it’s indeed stuck. The Bank of Japan has already implemented rate hikes, and liquidity continues to tighten; on the US side, there’s talk that inflation is performing well, and the Federal Reserve might consider easing policies. These opposing forces tug at each other, trapping the market in this position—unable to go up or down, entering a “vacuum” state—lacking clear direction and investment sentiment.
The technical situation is more straightforward. The 1-hour chart has formed a triangle convergence, with the range narrowing increasingly. In the short term, the range is confined between 2970 and 3020. The key support levels are at 2800 to 2850, and 3000 acts as a psychological resistance. Here’s a critical point: if it falls below 2800, the downward space could open up; conversely, if it can volume-wise stabilize above 3020, short-term sentiment might improve.
Interestingly, although the market is dull, on-chain movements are quite revealing. Large whales are making big purchases during dips, buying over 4,000 ETH in one go. What signals does this send? Big funds are willing to buy at this level, but that doesn’t mean they’re about to push the market up; it’s more likely they’re just positioning on the left side. Retail traders should be especially cautious—don’t chase after large transactions just because you see big trades.