Gold Price Analysis: New Rise Towards $4,200 Amid Interest Rate Cut Expectations | November 11, 2025

Precious Metal Records Strong Levels Supported by Weak Economic Data

The gold market has experienced notable activity during recent trading sessions, with the metal gradually rising to reach $4,137 per ounce, approaching its best performance in the past three weeks. This upward movement occurs amid various economic changes, as US employment data unexpectedly declined, and consumer confidence dropped to levels not seen in years. Simultaneously, signals from monetary policymakers indicate the possibility of expanding easing programs in the coming months, boosting demand for safe havens.

Prospects of US Rate Cuts Open the Door for Further Gains

According to reliable market pricing tools, investors are betting 64% on a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting. Some Federal Reserve officials favor a deeper cut of up to 50 basis points, especially as inflation rates decline and unemployment levels rise. This scenario creates an ideal environment for gold, as accommodative policies weaken the US dollar and reduce real yields on fixed-income assets, making investment in precious metals and gold investment chains a more efficient option for capital preservation.

Relative Political Stability but Economic Path Remains Fragile

After a long hiatus of over a month, US federal institutions resumed work following approval of a new funding package. While this development alleviates some political uncertainty, the real economic challenges have not disappeared. Data released after the shutdown showed clear weakness in the labor market and a loss of consumer confidence, reinforcing the need for safe havens and supporting demand for gold as a strategic hedge.

Economic Indicators Reflect a Decline in Sentiment

The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 50.3 points in November, the lowest level in three and a half years. The employment sector showed tangible weakness, with significant declines in hiring in government and retail sectors. Data from independent research agencies indicated only about 42,000 new jobs, reflecting a real economic slowdown. This overall climate drives investors to seek protection for their portfolios, increasing demand for gold as an asset unaffected by financial market volatility.

J.P. Morgan Forecast: Gold Could Exceed $5,000 by 2026

Recent research reports from major global financial institutions suggest that gold could see an extraordinary rise exceeding $5,000 per ounce next year. This estimate is based on deep structural factors, including a steady increase in central bank purchases worldwide, especially in emerging countries seeking to diversify their reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. With ongoing geopolitical pressures and general economic uncertainty, gold is gradually shifting from a short-term trading tool to a core component of long-term investment portfolios.

Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices are moving within a medium-term upward trend after rebounding strongly from a vital support level at $3,928 in recent weeks. Today, the metal is testing approximate resistance levels at $4,145 and $4,180, which are critical points that may determine the next movement. A clear breakout of these levels could open the way toward testing the previous high near $4,381.

Regarding technical indicators, the RSI( reading is 75 points, indicating overbought conditions in the very short term. However, positive divergence between price movement and the indicator has been observed, with rising lows while prices move relatively sideways, suggesting the underlying selling pressure remains strong. Trading volume shows gradual improvement accompanying recent highs, confirming the entry of new and genuine funds into the market.

Critical Support Levels:

• $4,046: Near-term strong support to maintain
• $3,928: Strategic pivotal support
• $3,470: Distant support indicating a deep correction

Main Resistance Levels:

• $4,145: Immediate barrier to upward movement
• $4,200: Pivotal resistance
• $4,381: Significant previous high
• $4,500: Future technical target

Expected Scenarios in the Coming Days

In the primary positive scenario, gold is expected to continue its attempts to rise, testing the range of $4,145–$4,200 during today and tomorrow’s sessions. Breaking these resistances with a strong close could accelerate the path toward the $4,300 target. The alternative scenario, though less likely currently, involves selling pressures pushing prices back toward support levels, especially if US economic data unexpectedly turn positive.

Performance of Other Precious Metals Moves at Varying Speeds

Silver rose to nearly $50.9 per ounce, benefiting from the overall momentum in the precious metals sector, but remaining dependent on industrial demand limits its pace of increase. Platinum traded around $1,584 per ounce, supported by recovering demand from the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Palladium, on the other hand, advanced toward $1,435 per ounce, benefiting from improved global supply chains.

Overall, the precious metals market benefits from economic uncertainty and a weak dollar, but gold remains the main star due to its role as a traditional safe haven amid rising bets on easing monetary policies.