This rebound is not the starting point of a bull market, but it may be a turning point in the direction.

In my view, this round of recovery is neither a simple pre-holiday rebound nor quite the beginning of a bull market, but it is very likely an important turning point. Previously, the main theme of the market was correction, defense, and deleveraging, but now we are seeing capital behaviors that are “daring to take positions and willing to try errors,” which in itself reflects a change in sentiment and expectations.

The total market capitalization has returned to $3.086 trillion, indicating that concerns about systemic risks have eased, but we are not yet in an entirely optimistic phase. This state often appears in the early stages when the trend shifts from “downward” to “oscillating with a slight upward bias.” Next, the key is whether the market can hold the core support after the holiday and whether risk assets will continue to resonate once US stocks resume trading.

If there is a rapid decline after the holiday and key levels are broken, then this rebound will be invalidated; conversely, if the correction is limited and funds continue to rotate, then the “embryo” of a new round of market trend may be forming.

The conclusion is simple: it’s not the time for blind optimism, but it’s no longer a phase of complete pessimism. Truly smart capital often begins to position itself in this ambiguous zone. #加密市场小幅回暖