How can the leading hydrogen fuel cell company seize the 2025 energy transition opportunity?

In 2025, under the push for global net-zero carbon emissions, the hydrogen energy industry is experiencing an unprecedented wave of investment. As a core solution for clean energy, hydrogen fuel cell technology is gradually moving from concept to commercial application. For investors, the key is to identify true industry leaders—companies that not only possess advanced technology but also have a complete industry chain layout and government support.

Why Has the Hydrogen Energy Industry Become an Investment Hotspot?

The global hydrogen energy market size reached US$1.1 billion in 2023, with an expected reach of US$30.6 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 61.1%. According to the International Energy Agency, to achieve the net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050, global hydrogen demand must reach 530 million tons. This means hydrogen energy is not only an investment concept but also an inevitable choice for future energy structures.

Taiwan’s 2050 net-zero pathway plan sets the hydrogen supply ratio at 9%-12%, indicating government emphasis on hydrogen energy development. As of 2023, 17 countries worldwide have proposed comprehensive hydrogen development strategies.

Looking at market performance, the Morningstar Global Hydrogen Index recorded a 4.86% increase in 2024. Although it underperformed the broader market, the volatility reflects market recognition of its long-term potential. In early 2025, hydrogen fuel cell-related stocks experienced a rapid correction followed by a swift rebound, precisely confirming market confidence in this sector.

In-Depth Comparison of Leading Hydrogen Fuel Cell Companies

Global Leader: Air Products and Chemicals Inc (NYSE: APD)

As one of the world’s largest commercial hydrogen suppliers, APD has established an unshakable market position in hydrogen infrastructure. In 2024, its stock price increased by 53.96%, far outperforming peers, demonstrating market recognition of its competitiveness.

APD is currently advancing multiple major hydrogen projects, expected to be completed over the next few years. The average 12-month target price from 15 Wall Street analysts is $362.31 (high of $385, low of $300), indicating institutional optimism about its future performance.

The company’s advantage lies in its mature supply chain system and global deployment, providing stable hydrogen supply guarantees for customers.

Fuel Cell Technology Pioneer: Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG)

PLUG is an innovator in hydrogen fuel cell industry, pioneering the first commercially viable market for this technology. The company has deployed over 69,000 industry-leading fuel cell systems in electric mobility, serving vehicle and fleet operators.

In infrastructure, PLUG operates over 250 hydrogen refueling stations in North America, making it one of the largest hydrogen purchasers globally. The company is building an end-to-end green hydrogen network covering production, storage, and transportation in North America and Europe.

However, in 2024, PLUG’s stock price fell by 55.17%, reflecting market concerns about its profitability. The 12-month average target price from 21 Wall Street analysts is $2.73 (high of $5.00, low of $1.00), with a wide range indicating significant divergence in outlooks. This suggests investors should closely monitor its technological progress and cost management capabilities.

Energy Giant Transition: BP (NYSE: BP)

BP has set a net-zero emission target for 2050 or earlier, with hydrogen becoming a core pillar of its low-carbon energy strategy. The company plans to invest in 5-10 hydrogen projects globally, with an expected annual low-carbon hydrogen production of 500,000 to 700,000 tons by 2030.

In 2024, BP’s stock price declined by 7.59%, but the 12-month average target price from 9 Wall Street analysts is $36.10 (high of $50, low of $30), reflecting uncertainties in its transition process.

BP’s strength lies in its strong financial resources and global oil and gas infrastructure, providing natural support for its hydrogen business.

Taiwan’s Hydrogen Industry Leader: Chung Hsing Electric (1513.tw)

As a domestic leader, Chung Hsing Electric is ambitious in its hydrogen industry layout. The company is collaborating with major domestic petrochemical giants to build 2-3 large hydrogen refueling stations by 2025, with the first expected to be operational in the second quarter.

Additionally, Chung Hsing Electric has secured orders from Taipower for grid reinforcement projects, with on-hand orders approaching NT$40 billion, and some long-term contracts extending to 2032, ensuring solid revenue and profit growth.

In 2024, its full-year consolidated revenue reached NT$25.61 billion, a 15.65% increase year-over-year, setting a record high and surpassing market expectations (NT$25 billion). In December, monthly revenue was NT$2.353 billion, up 16.72% month-over-month.

According to FactSet surveys, the median target price from 5 analysts is NT$220 (high NT$244, low NT$220), down 4.35% from previous NT$230. Compared to the volatility of other international peers, Chung Hsing Electric shows a more stable growth trajectory.

Fuel Cell Components Supplier: Gaoli (8996.tw)

Gaoli has long been an OEM for internationally renowned fuel cell companies and is a major supplier of dust removal boxes for Bloom Energy fuel cells. Its products are highly flexible in design, with short installation cycles (usually completed within months), meeting diverse scenario needs.

At the investor conference, the company revealed expectations for 2025: plate heat exchangers will see low double-digit growth, fuel cell dust removal boxes will achieve high double-digit growth, and heat dissipation products will see exponential revenue growth. Gaoli is optimistic about its overall revenue growth in the double digits, with profit growth expected to surpass revenue growth.

FactSet’s survey of 5 analysts’ target prices saw a median decrease from NT$533 to NT$480 (a 9.94% drop), with a high of NT$630 and a low of NT$480, reflecting market recognition of its supply chain position.

New Drivers for the Hydrogen Energy Industry

Enhanced Tax Policy Support

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced final rules for clean hydrogen production, clarifying that qualifying manufacturers can receive tax credits of up to US$3 per kilogram. This policy provides industry with clear investment return expectations, encouraging more capital to invest in hydrogen infrastructure. Following the announcement, new energy stocks including PLUG rose immediately, confirming the policy’s positive impact on market confidence.

Technological Progress and Cost Reduction

Darcy Partners, a technology intelligence firm, reports that in 2023, a total of 1,418 hydrogen projects worldwide announced investments totaling US$570 billion, a 31% increase from the previous year. This reflects growing global confidence and investment in hydrogen technology commercialization.

Advances in electrolysis technology and the continuous decline in renewable energy production costs are lowering the manufacturing costs of clean hydrogen, creating conditions for large-scale green hydrogen applications.

Investment Opportunities and Risk Assessment

Opportunities

The global commitment to net-zero carbon emissions is firm, with increasing policy and financial support. Governments are investing in hydrogen infrastructure, and companies are developing clean hydrogen technologies. The beneficiaries are leading companies that control core technologies and market share. For hydrogen fuel cell leaders, the industry’s growth dividends are just beginning to be released.

Risks to Watch

Intensifying Industry Competition

As the hydrogen market matures, more emerging companies are entering, intensifying market share competition. PLUG’s profit margins have been squeezed by price wars with competitors, affecting its stock performance. Investors should pay attention to companies’ core competitiveness in technological innovation and cost management.

Production Cost Challenges

Despite technological advances making hydrogen production more economical, reliance on fossil fuel-based processes remains. This not only limits environmental benefits but also links hydrogen prices to international oil prices. When oil prices rise, hydrogen production costs may increase, impacting market competitiveness.

Three Pathways for Hydrogen Energy Investment

Contract for Difference (CFD)

Investing in hydrogen concept stocks via CFDs allows speculation on asset price movements without directly purchasing stocks. Advantages include high flexibility and leverage, suitable for short-term investors. With a minimum of US$50, trading can be initiated, supporting TWD deposits, lowering participation barriers.

Traditional Stock Investment

Directly buying and holding hydrogen concept stocks to profit from stock price appreciation. This approach is relatively stable and suitable for long-term investors with lower risk appetite. However, it requires more capital and offers lower returns compared to CFDs.

Funds or ETFs

Investing indirectly through hydrogen ETFs to hold multiple related companies’ stocks, achieving diversification and risk management. Mainstream options include Global X Hydrogen ETF (HYDR) and Direxion Hydrogen ETF (HJEN), covering hydrogen production, storage, transportation, fuel cells, and electrolyzers in the US, Europe, and Japan. Compared to single-stock investments, funds offer better risk control.

Full Industry Chain Overview

Upstream Hydrogen Production

Hydrogen production methods are classified into three types: gray hydrogen (from fossil fuels, highest carbon emissions), blue hydrogen (fossil fuels with carbon capture, significantly reduced emissions), and green hydrogen (produced via electrolysis using renewable energy, achieving zero emissions).

Green hydrogen is expected to become mainstream, with investment opportunities focusing on related technologies and companies, which will drive long-term industry growth.

Midstream Storage and Transportation

For large-scale storage, salt caverns or rock caverns with pipeline transportation are most economical but limited by geography. Currently, high-pressure hydrogen transportation is mainstream. Hydrogen refueling stations, as key nodes in the industry chain, directly influence storage and transportation costs.

Downstream Applications

Hydrogen energy applications cover transportation, industrial manufacturing, power generation, and energy storage, with transportation showing the greatest growth potential. From an investment perspective, upstream green hydrogen production and downstream transportation sectors have the strongest growth momentum and space.

Conclusion

2025 is a critical year for hydrogen energy transition. For investors, choosing leading hydrogen fuel cell companies with stable supply chains, technological leadership, and strong profitability is crucial. Whether it’s global giants like APD, technological pioneers like PLUG, or domestic leaders like Chung Hsing Electric and Gaoli, each plays a different role in the hydrogen revolution.

Investors should closely monitor cost control, technological progress, and policy changes of leading companies, and select investment methods aligned with their risk tolerance—be it direct stock investments for long-term returns, CFD trading for short-term opportunities, or ETF funds for risk diversification.

The future of the hydrogen energy industry depends on the triangle of technological advancement, cost control, and policy support. Early-stage investors in this energy transition will reap the benefits of the transformation.