The era of the Fed's super easing may really be coming to an end. The U.S. Treasury recently sent a clear signal: the three main directions for the next Fed Chair are tapering, layoffs, and ending long-term QE. He explicitly stated that the quantitative easing of the past 15 years has become an "inequality engine," mainly benefiting Wall Street rather than ordinary people.

Meanwhile, political pressure continues to rise. U.S. leaders have criticized the current Chair's policy stance and hinted at personnel adjustments next year. This directly undermines expectations of Fed independence. Market optimism about rate cuts has been shattered; there may only be one rate cut opportunity before 2026, widely interpreted as a "hawkish stance." As a result, U.S. Treasury yields surged to the 4.2% mark, with analysts warning that if independence further weakens, 4.5% is also possible.

The cryptocurrency market is at the forefront. The macro environment of tightening liquidity directly suppresses Bitcoin and Ethereum. BTC repeatedly fluctuates around the 87,000 level, while ETH struggles to hold above the $3,000 mark. Although some regulators have pro-crypto voices, the overall expectation of "balance sheet reduction" is enough to cool the market. Memories are still fresh: during the last Fed balance sheet reduction, the crypto market experienced a single-day liquidation of over $2.3 billion.

Policy, politics, and market factors are intertwining to create a new risk landscape. Liquidity anxiety is reignited, and volatility may increase. Is this the beginning of a decline, or the last wave of panic?