Have you heard of the "Santa Claus Rally"? Every year around the end of the year, many people talk about a mysterious surge in cryptocurrencies. But is this really a pattern or just a market fantasy?

Let's look at ten years of historical data. From 2014 to 2023, the total market capitalization of the crypto market indeed increased after Christmas in the week from December 27 to January 2, 8 times. But here’s the question—with gains ranging from 0.69% to 11.87%, is this really a pattern given such a wide range?

What’s more disheartening is that the increases in the week before Christmas only occurred 5 times in ten years. This "pattern" itself is irregular.

Major market moves often happen unexpectedly. Remember 2017? The market plummeted by 12.12% right before Christmas, as the ICO bubble burst shattered everyone’s dreams. That year, Bitcoin suffered a more severe drop of 21.30% in the week before Christmas, pouring cold water on investors’ expectations.

On the other hand, in 2016, the market surged by 11.56% before Christmas and 10.56% after Christmas, with Bitcoin soaring by 13.19% during the same period, breaking through $1000. However, this "double surge" pattern has only appeared 3 times in ten years.

Looking at Bitcoin alone, the data is even more interesting. Over the past decade, it has risen 7 times in the week before Christmas and shown similar performance in the week after. But don’t be fooled by these numbers—this is just a game of probabilities, not a hard rule. The market’s rhythm is always influenced by multiple factors; seasonality is just one variable. Instead of chasing the illusory "Santa Claus pattern," it’s better to focus on actual fundamentals and liquidity changes.