November 25 Market Morning Brief: Risk appetite rebounds, AI policies boost the three major indices to rise together, crypto assets perform remarkably

Monday (November 24) saw multiple positive catalysts in the global markets, with risk sentiment clearly warming. Factors such as the Trump administration launching the AI “Genesis Project,” progress in Ukraine peace negotiations, US-China leaders’ call, and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts collectively drove the markets higher. The VIX fear index dropped 12.4%, reflecting a return of investor confidence.

Crypto Market Leads, Bitcoin Breaks Key Level

Cryptocurrencies performed strongly, with Bitcoin rising 1.71% in 24 hours, currently quoted at $88,300, continuing its two-day rally. Ethereum led the gains with a 5.62% increase over 24 hours, now at $2,958. Gold also moved higher, recapturing the $4,100 level, with the latest at $4,134.7 per ounce, up 1.73%.

US Major Indices Generally Up, Tech Stocks Perform Strongly

The US stock market advanced across the board, with the Dow up 0.44%, the S&P 500 rising 1.55%, and the Nasdaq soaring 2.69%. The China Golden Dragon Index increased 2.82%. European markets also rose, with the DAX up 0.64%, while the UK and France declined slightly by 0.05% and 0.29%, respectively.

Tech stocks led the rally, with Google up over 6%, reaching a market cap of $3.84 trillion, as investors remain optimistic about its AI leadership. Tesla gained 6.8%, while Apple, Amazon, and Meta increased between 1.6% and 3.2%. Nvidia fluctuated, rising 2.1%. Pharmaceutical giant Merck performed the best, up 2.7%.

Fed Officials Signal Dovish Stance, December Rate Cut Probability Rises to 70%

Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a rate cut in December, citing limited inflation impact from tariffs and viewing them as one-off factors. Waller pointed out that private sector data shows a soft labor market, with September employment data possibly being revised downward. He emphasized that the labor market is a primary concern and advocates for a rate cut at the next meeting, with a gradual decision-making approach starting in January next year.

Based on futures data, the market prices in about a 70% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting. Three Fed officials appointed by Trump—Boman, Mullan, and Waller—are expected to support a cut in December. Last week, Fed Chair Williams signaled a dovish stance, hinting he would join the rate cut camp, and Cook also leans dovishly.

AI-Driven Future Growth, Wall Street Raises Target Prices

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson believes the recent correction in US stocks is nearing its end and maintains an optimistic outlook for next year’s stock market. The firm notes that any short-term weakness will be viewed as an opportunity to increase long positions, favoring consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, industrials, and small caps. The strategist projects the S&P 500 to rebound to 7,800 points in one year, about 18% above current levels.

Deutsche Bank’s research team is even more optimistic, expecting a strong rally driven by AI in 2026, with the S&P 500 potentially surpassing 8,000 points by the end of next year. The bank highlights that rapid investments and applications in AI will continue to dominate market sentiment, and technological advances are expected to translate into substantial productivity gains.

Trump Signs AI “Genesis Project” to Strengthen Scientific Research Infrastructure

The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to launch the AI “Genesis Project,” aiming to transform scientific research methods and accelerate scientific discoveries through AI. The order directs the Department of Energy to create an AI experimentation platform, integrating US supercomputers and unique data assets to generate foundational scientific models and support robotics labs.

The President’s Science and Technology Advisor will coordinate the project, integrating data and infrastructure across federal agencies. The Secretary of Energy, Tech Advisor, and AI & Crypto Technology Special Counsel will collaborate with academia and private sector innovators to implement the “Genesis Project.” This initiative aims to reinforce US leadership in AI.

US-Ukraine Peace Negotiations Make Progress, Revised Framework Re-submitted

US and Ukrainian officials made progress after talks in Geneva, agreeing to modify the US proposal and draft a revised peace framework. While details were not disclosed, the dialogue received cautious welcome from some Ukrainian allies. Zelensky welcomed the progress but warned that Russian demands for Ukraine to recognize Moscow-occupied territories would undermine territorial integrity.

The Kremlin stated it has not received detailed results of the talks but is aware that plans have been adjusted, and Putin welcomed this. Moscow and Kyiv remain deeply divided on territorial issues and security guarantees, with details yet to be announced.

Tech Giants Active, Infrastructure Investments Accelerate

OpenAI released a free AI shopping research tool that generates personalized shopping guides for ChatGPT users. The new tool collects user needs via questionnaires, recommending 10 to 15 items, with filtering options to optimize the list. OpenAI plans to offer nearly unlimited access to all users by January next year.

Apple has made rare layoffs, cutting dozens of sales positions, including customer managers serving large enterprises, schools, and government clients, as well as employees at the Apple Presentation Center. The move aims to streamline product delivery to businesses and institutions.

Amazon Web Services(AWS) announced an investment of up to $50 billion to build AI and high-performance computing infrastructure for the US government, adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of computing capacity across various classified levels.

Economic Data Release Delays, Follow-up Movements to Watch Closely

The US Census Bureau’s Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that data releases affected by the government shutdown have been postponed; the Q3 GDP initial estimate scheduled for October 30 has been canceled. The second economic estimate scheduled for this Wednesday is likely delayed. The September PCE and personal income reports will be released at 10:00 AM EST on December 5, one month later than originally planned.

Market Highlights

The US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.03%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day. WTI crude oil rose 1.57% to $58.8 per barrel. The US dollar index fell 0.01% to 100.1. USD/JPY increased 0.33%, EUR/USD rose 0.07%.

In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng night futures closed at 25,874 points, up 160 points, over the previous close of 25,716, a premium of 158 points. The China Enterprises Index night futures closed at 9,131 points, up 52 points from the previous close.

Key Events to Watch Today

UK November CBI Retail Sales Balance, Alibaba earnings call, US September Retail Sales MoM, US September PPI YoY and MoM, US September FHFA House Price Index MoM, US September S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price YoY, US August Business Inventories MoM, US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, US November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among others, will be released sequentially.