## Bitcoin Stuck Around $90,000, Why Are Gold and Silver Breaking Through? What Does the Ascending Triangle Indicate?

On Friday, the crypto market staged a "divergence show"—gold and silver both surged to new highs, with silver even reaching a historic high of $64, and gold approaching $4,300, while Bitcoin remains oscillating around $90,000. In the same easing cycle, why is their performance so vastly different?

**Market "Decoupling" After the Federal Reserve Rate Cut**

After the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday, the US dollar index dropped to its lowest point since mid-October. Theoretically, this should be bullish for all "anti-fiat" assets—gold, silver, and crypto—causing them all to rise. But what happened? Traditional precious metals surged, while cryptocurrencies appeared weak and lackluster.

Jasper De Maere, strategist at Wintermute Trading, pointed out that this reflects a deeper issue: over the past year, Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq on only 18% of macro event trading days. After the rate cut, stocks rebounded, but crypto actually declined—indicating the market has fully priced in the easing expectations. The marginal support from loose monetary policy for crypto assets is waning.

Even more concerning is that investors' focus is shifting. Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, market concerns about stagflation are emerging, and regulatory policies are gradually replacing central bank policies as the dominant market driver. This suggests Bitcoin's narrative is being rewritten.

**Selling Pressure Weakening, But Still Far from Reversal**

Data from Swissblock offers a glimmer of hope for bulls: Bitcoin's downward pressure is easing. The second wave of selling is noticeably weaker than the first, and some stabilization signals are appearing in the market. But the key point is "not yet enough to confirm a trend reversal"—this captures the current awkward situation.

Bitcoin's performance in Q4 has indeed been tough. After failing to break above $125,000 earlier, it slid down to around $80,000, with a maximum decline of 36.22%. Although there was a rebound afterward, the recovery has been far less than expected—when the dollar broke out of a descending wedge and strengthened, Bitcoin plunged; when the dollar weakened, Bitcoin's rebound was hesitant.

Looking at the weekly chart, the last three weekly candles all have prominent upper wicks, which is not a good sign—indicating each rebound faced selling pressure. Especially at the critical level of $90,000, Bitcoin has been unable to stabilize above it.

**Bullish Signals from the Daily Chart**

But from another perspective, the situation isn't as bleak as it seems. On the daily chart, since dropping to $80,000, Bitcoin has gradually formed a "higher low" structure—providing a technical basis for a rebound. Meanwhile, market acceptance of the $90,000 level is increasing, and the rebound high points are also rising. On Monday, it once reached $94,652, close to previous high zones.

However, the current environment should be more optimistic. Gold and silver are rallying, and the dollar is weakening, but Bitcoin hasn't kept pace with "anti-fiat" assets—what does this imply? The bullish momentum may still be insufficient.

**Key Formation on the Four-Hour Chart: Rising Triangle Emerges**

Zooming into the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin's technical pattern becomes more interesting. The previous support levels are turning into resistance, forming an ascending triangle with a horizontal boundary around $93,961. Once this level is broken, the next key resistance zone is just below $100,000, with the previous high at $99,939 potentially becoming the core target for bulls.

What does this ascending triangle pattern mean? It indicates that the bears' defense is shrinking, and the bulls' counterattack space is also compressed. A breakout would suggest a relatively decisive upward move; failure to break could increase risks.

**Two Contradictory Market Interpretations**

Bullish view: The downtrend lacks sustainability, as a higher low structure has formed, and the short-term charts have confirmed higher highs and higher lows, providing a technical foundation for further rebound.

Bearish concern: In an environment where the dollar is clearly weakening and other hedging assets are breaking out, Bitcoin's lack of strength suggests its upward momentum may have been exhausted. This "favorable environment but poor performance" often hints at deeper trouble.

For traders, the key is to watch the short-term charts—where clearer structural signals are emerging—making them the best window for trading opportunities. Whether Bitcoin can follow gold and silver's lead might just be decided at the $93,961 level.