Today marks my 556th consecutive day of posting updates, with no breaks. Each post is not just perfunctory but carefully prepared. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can walk with me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me to avoid losing track. [微笑][微笑]

Recently, this kind of oscillating, volatile, and needle-insertion pattern—rising and falling sharply—will torment many short-sellers. Profits surge instantly and then vanish just as quickly, stop-loss after stop-loss. After experiencing several cycles of “gain and loss, loss and gain,” when the price returns near their cost basis, most people instinctively choose to close their positions and watch rather than continue to hold a firm short. Because after going through this three times, most no longer believe they will have such good luck again. Unless you are the type of stubborn short who holds to the end, most normal traders will have this self-protection mechanism.

With only 7 days left until the end of 2025, the crypto fear and greed index remains in extreme fear territory, and market confidence is as fragile as a thin layer of ice. Bitcoin struggles to hold support levels between 86,000 and 90,000 USD, looking barely stable but actually on the brink of collapse. I especially want to remind new entrants not to hold onto the fantasy of a miraculous rebound by the end of the year. Major funds have long since withdrawn, European and American institutions are busy celebrating Christmas holidays, and the entire market’s buying momentum has become weak and fragile. The liquidity risk around the holiday season is worth highlighting—US stock markets are either closed or half-closed, and the capital activity in the crypto market will directly plunge. During such times, sudden needle-insertion moves are most likely to occur, catching both bulls and bears off guard.

Looking back to 2025, calling it the year of BTC distribution is not an exaggeration. The $300 billion of dormant Bitcoin has re-entered the market, and most of the year has been marked by oscillations and declines. ETF outflows have continued, and these signals have already revealed the trend clearly. Institutions and veteran players who positioned themselves from 2022 to 2023 have completed a handsome chip exchange at high levels of 100,000 to 120,000 USD. For them, this game is now coming to an end. But the market has always had people exiting and others entering. For institutions and long-term investors looking to position for the next cycle, January next year might be a good window. After enduring this liquidity drought and selling pressure at the year’s end, new opportunities may be just around the corner.