Golden decade scene reappears? Targeting $5,000 in 2026, three forces work together

The golden rally in 2025 is truly remarkable. In just three months, September saw a gain of over 10% (the best monthly performance since 2016), October added another 5% and hit a record high, and November continued to rise by 4%, bringing the total annual increase to nearly 55%. How strong is this performance? It’s enough to make gold achieve its strongest annual gain since 1979 and fuels expectations that in 2026, gold prices could challenge $5,000 per ounce. (Source: Kitco)

Central Bank De-dollarization Becomes a New Trend, Gold Reserves See Major Upgrades

Currently, the global economy exhibits typical stagflation characteristics—slowing growth coupled with rising prices. In this environment, central banks are quietly changing their attitudes.

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, central bank gold purchases have accelerated significantly. Many countries are actively reducing their dollar exposure and increasing the weight of gold in their foreign exchange reserves. Currently, the average share of gold in global central bank reserves is about 20%, with a long-term goal of increasing to 30%. Take China as an example; its gold holdings account for about 8%, leaving substantial room for growth.

This shift reflects a new understanding among decision-makers regarding geopolitical and financial risks—gold is becoming the preferred asset for central banks to hedge against future uncertainties.

Global Buying Consensus Seen in Multi-Currency Valuations

Gold’s strength is not limited to the US dollar system. When priced in Australian dollars, British pounds, euros, Indian rupees, Japanese yen, and other currencies, gold remains near all-time highs. What does this indicate? Global investors are voting with their actions—regardless of location, they are optimistic about gold.

Gold ETFs Surge by 17%, Institutional Investors Enter in Large Numbers

This year, gold ETF holdings have increased by 17%, with investment enthusiasm continuing to grow. The traditional 60/40 asset allocation (60% stocks + 40% bonds) has shown signs of fatigue amid inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical shocks. An increasing number of institutions are reconsidering their portfolios—adding strategic commodities like gold, silver, copper, and crude oil to enhance resilience. The influx of institutional funds has become a key driver pushing gold prices higher. (Source: Kitco)

Expectations of Rate Cuts in 2026 Strengthen Long-term Bullish Outlook for Gold

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch Tool,” rate cuts are expected to resume in 2026—although the exact timing remains uncertain, the direction is clear. The release of more macroeconomic data will gradually dispel market speculation about the Fed’s rate path, shifting focus back to employment, inflation, and other economic fundamentals.

The arrival of a rate-cut cycle means reduced attractiveness of the dollar and lower opportunity costs of holding gold—this is a clear positive for gold prices. (Source: Kitco)

Seasonal Trading Opportunity: Historical Patterns of Gold in February

Historical data reveals an interesting pattern: over the past decade, buying gold contracts around late November and selling near the end of January has generally yielded good returns.

An institutional strategy is outlined as follows:

Trading Details:

• Target: February 2026 mini gold futures (10 ounces)
• Entry Price: $4,100
• Target Price: $5,000 (breaking through, aiming for $10,000 in 2027)
• Stop Loss: $3,900
• Price Volatility per Unit: $10 per $1 movement
• Expected Risk: $2,000
• Potential Reward: $9,000

Traders should roll over contracts in February, June, and December.

Risks Cannot Be Ignored

Gold typically faces pressure under conditions such as a strengthening dollar and rising interest rates, especially when both move upward simultaneously. If the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, raising rates to combat overheating and inflation, gold could face challenges.

However, the current environment is different. In a stagflation setting with central banks increasing allocations, institutional inflows, and imminent rate cuts, gold is in a rare strategic opportunity. How far this decade-long gold rally can go, the answer in 2026 is worth looking forward to.