This Christmas holiday, liquidity in the precious metals market is indeed worth paying attention to.

Currently, December 25th coincides with Christmas, and most major financial markets in Europe and the US are closed, making gold trading light and subdued. When liquidity tightens, prices are prone to sudden drops or surges, and volatility may be amplified. Additionally, there are no major economic data releases on that day, so technical analysis becomes the main driver, which is a typical holiday market characteristic.

The key point is the US market reopening on December 26th. Three events must be watched closely:

First, Federal Reserve official Goolsby is scheduled to speak. This gentleman has previously stated that there is still room for rate cuts, leaning dovishly. His comments are likely to influence market expectations for the easing cycle, making this quite significant.

Second, the US November new home sales data will be released. This is a key indicator in the real estate sector, directly reflecting the current state of the US economy. If the data is strong, it could actually be unfavorable for gold prices.

Third, Trump’s comments on the Federal Reserve Chairperson candidate. Such news often stirs market judgments about the outlook for rate cuts, and its influence should not be underestimated.

Another background factor is that the US Q3 GDP growth exceeded expectations, reaching 4.3%, which is a bearish signal for precious metals. The residual momentum of this high-growth data will continue to compete with market expectations for rate cuts, and both bullish and bearish forces should be watched carefully.

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart for gold has already shown a pullback after a rally, establishing a short-term correction pattern. All eyes are now on the 4445 level — which is both the middle band support of the Bollinger Bands and a critical point for whether the current upward trend can continue.

If the price breaks below the support zone of 4440-4445, the short-term top formation will be confirmed, and the subsequent correction space may further open. Conversely, if this support holds, the bulls will have the opportunity to organize the next rally.

In terms of trading, consider entering long positions in the 4450-4460 area, with the first target at 4500-4530. If the market breaks through this zone with volume, the next resistance can be seen at 4560. For long positions already established below 4400, holding on is not a problem; just set stop-losses to protect the capital and let the trend run for profits.