2025-12-25 02:27:02

Recently observed the trend of the US stock market, the daily chart overall shows a slight upward movement, forming a V-shaped rebound pattern, which is consistent with the previous live analysis. However, Bitcoin this week on the daily chart continues to consolidate at the bottom without following the upward momentum of US stocks. This divergence actually indicates that the current market lacks upward driving force, and the upward momentum is somewhat weak.

From a technical perspective, if the US stock market turns downward, the crypto market is likely to accelerate its decline. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor the movements of US stocks moving forward. By the way, due to Christmas, the US stock market will be closed for one day tonight.

Looking at the liquidation map data, the buying and selling forces of BTC, ETH, and SOL are all relatively balanced, with a moderate level of density. Most market participants are still in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting confirmation of the direction. Based on the flow of spot ETF funds from institutional investors, BTC has net outflows of $66.7 million, ETH net outflows of $30.5 million, while SOL has a net inflow of $0.4 million. Clearly, foreign traders are not very active during the holiday period, showing an overall net outflow characteristic.

My personal judgment is that, in the absence of major news-driven factors, the market will maintain this calm and low-volatility pattern in the short term. If this sideways trend continues until the end of the month, it would actually be a good state. Whether a sudden reversal will happen remains to be seen, so continued observation is necessary.

Therefore, the recent strategy mainly focuses on short-term swings and grid arbitrage. The current trading approach is basically the same as yesterday:

**Bitcoin**: Expect the fluctuation range to be between 86,000 and 89,000. Short positions can be placed at 88,500 or entered on rallies, with additional positions at 90,000, and partial take-profit at 87,000. For the opposite side, go long at 86,500 or buy on dips, with additional positions at 85,000, and partial take-profit at 88,500.

**Ethereum**: Expected fluctuation range is 2,880 to 3,030. Short at 2,980 or enter at high levels, add positions at 3,080, and take profit in parts at 2,930. For long positions, enter at 2,900 or on dips, add at 2,800, and take profit in parts at 2,860.

**Solana**: The trend is relatively weaker, with a fluctuation range of 118 to 125. Short at 124 or enter on rallies, add at 127, and take profit in parts at 120.

BTC0.27%

ETH-0.48%

SOL-0.57%

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PoolJumper

· 1h ago

The V-shaped rebound in the US stocks looks impressive, but BTC is still sleeping. This divergence is quite interesting. --- With such a large net outflow, it seems institutions have gone on Christmas break. Retail investors need to watch out themselves. --- I'm tempted by the short position at 88500, just worried about a sudden black swan. --- Honestly, I dislike days of sideways trading the most. Not making money and constantly watching the market is exhausting. --- It's easy to say not to be greedy, but when actually trading, everyone wants to take a bigger bite. That's human nature. --- SOL only has a net inflow of 400,000. The coldness isn't as bad as it seems. --- Going long at 85000? Feels like it might drop further. Let's wait a bit more. --- Your analysis is quite detailed, but don't rely too much on technicals. The trend can change in an instant.

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SolidityNewbie

· 7h ago

Huh, it's that old routine again, waiting for the direction to be confirmed... waiting here? Just sideways trading, anyway I'm just following the grid, if I can't make big money, I'll just fool myself into making small money. BTW, I just realized that the US stock market is closed, lucky you reminded me.

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ContractFreelancer

· 7h ago

U.S. stocks have rebounded, but the crypto market is still dithering. This divergence is quite intense... No wonder institutions are selling off. --- Holiday trading volume just won't pick up; guess we'll just wait until the end of the month. Anyway, just play the swing. --- I've already placed a short order at 88,500. Let's see how U.S. stocks move after Christmas; I feel there might be a trend reversal. --- SOL is still experiencing net inflow. Could it be turning around? Need to keep a close eye on it. --- Not being greedy is true. I’ve suffered losses from holding through resistance before. Taking profits when the time is right feels much better. --- The bulls and bears are so evenly matched. Instead of guessing blindly, better to play grid trading and earn steadily. --- This divergence seems to be brewing something. Need to keep observing. --- I've noted the long position at 86,500. If it drops, I’ll jump in again. --- Holiday market conditions are so dull, it's really boring. Better to stick with short-term swing trades for safety. --- If U.S. stocks turn around, it’s game over. So, we really need to keep a close watch on their movements.

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ShamedApeSeller

· 8h ago

US stocks V-shaped rebound, BTC still lying flat. This divergence is a bit interesting, feels like everyone is waiting for the US stocks to set the tone. Bitcoin is just oscillating between 86 and 89, repeatedly harvesting profits. I'll stick to the grid strategy anyway, since the holiday market is like this. The influx of SOL is noticeable. Is someone secretly building positions? Need to keep an eye on it. I've heard the phrase "take profits when the market looks good" a hundred times, but when it really comes to a critical moment, it's easy to get caught up. It's tough. Waiting for a sudden trend reversal. It feels like it's about to happen. Recently, it's been too quiet, which feels off.

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BuyHighSellLow

· 8h ago

US stocks V-shaped rebound without follow-through, this divergence is really strong. Are institutions also starting to become cautious? BTC is just lying flat, waiting for US stocks to fall, and we'll be buried with them. This rhythm is truly uncomfortable. Holiday trading is quiet, and net outflows indicate someone is fleeing. We need to be cautious. Grid arbitrage continues, maintaining oscillation between 86-89. Take profits when the time is right, don't be greedy. Solana is a bit weak this week, it might break its support level.

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MidsommarWallet

· 8h ago

The US stock market has a V-shaped rebound, but the crypto circle is still dead silent. This divergence would make anyone nervous. --- Holiday trading volume plummeted, institutions are on vacation and slacking off, no wonder ETF net outflows are so fierce. --- Exactly right, now is just waiting and watching. Only when news drops will there be a chance. --- Be careful with that 89000 short position; a pullback might only bring it down to around 86500. --- The net inflow of SOL against the trend is quite interesting. What could this be hinting at? --- Saying "not greedy" is easy, but how many can actually do it in real trading? Haha. --- Once I see the liquidation map showing a balanced long and short, I know a shakeout is coming. In the short term, focus on swing trading. --- When the US stock market crashes, the crypto circle will follow suit and fall quickly. The correlation is really strong. --- Holding on too tightly can lead to a dead hold. Taking profits in batches is still the most reliable strategy. --- ETH's range is narrow, grid arbitrage is indeed comfortable, but I'm worried about sudden trend reversals breaking through.

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GasFeeCryer

· 8h ago

The US stock V-shaped rebound looks pretty good this time, but BTC sideways trading is really boring. It feels like institutions are also on vacation and slacking off. --- Net outflow of over 60 million. Foreigners' holidays mean trading volume is really low. This market trend is indeed a bit cold. --- Short-term wave grid, this routine is familiar, but I'm still worried about a sudden reversal. --- Trying a short at 88500, just afraid that if US stocks turn around, they'll immediately chase the short. Too exciting. --- A net inflow of 400,000 in SOL is actually a bit interesting. Could it be that institutions are secretly bottom-fishing? --- Maintaining a stable market before the end of the month is the most comfortable—peace of mind and profit. Who would complain? --- Looking at the density of liquidation maps, it's so-so, indicating that the real big funds are still waiting. --- Arbitrage in the 86 to 89 range has low risk but also low profit. Just for stability. --- The saying "Don't be greedy, take profits when you see good" sounds simple, but it's really hard to do in practice. --- For ETH at 2930, I think it's good enough if it can run to that level. Don't overthink it.

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