What You Need to Know About Gold Trends in 2026: Interest Rates and Trade Risks

From Dream to Reality: Gold Hits $4,100

Anyone who invested in gold at the beginning of 2025 has seen their investment grow by more than two-thirds. This year marks a true year of success for the gold market. Prices not only surpassed the original target of $4,000 but also surged to $4,181 per ounce in late October.

In Thailand, the 96.5% pure gold bar also followed the same trend, soaring past the initial target of 55,000 baht. This caused many market analysts to revise their outlook because this upward adjustment exceeded expectations.

Why is the buying momentum so strong?

When you see prices increase by $250 per ounce in just a few days, it’s no coincidence. Several structural factors are driving the gold market to its highest levels.

Global trade tensions

Trade conflicts between major powers have escalated to a new level, with announced import tariffs as high as 100%. Such situations lead investors worldwide to seek safe assets that are unaffected by trade policy changes.

Central banks as major buyers

Central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets, have purchased over 1,200 tons of gold annually. This phenomenon reflects a diversification away from reliance on the dollar. The events of 2022, when some central bank assets were frozen, prompted many countries to reassess their gold holdings.

Real yields decline

As the US Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, holding gold (which pays no interest) becomes a more attractive option. It is true that gold and real interest rates tend to move in opposite directions.

BRICS group preparations

News about the BRICS countries preparing a gold-backed digital currency highlights the importance of gold in creating alternative financial systems. This marks a significant structural change in the global financial system.

Leading financial institutions’ forecasts: targets still higher

Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold, expecting prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. This is an upward revision from previous estimates.

UBS also sees central bank gold accumulation as a key factor supporting prices for the long term.

If we recalculate these global forecasts into Thai baht, Thai gold prices could potentially reach 75,000-80,000 baht per baht weight in 2025.

Technical analysis: what signals to watch?

From the price charts, several key indicators stand out.

The RSI indicator for gold is in the overbought zone (Overbought), which may suggest a short-term correction. However, the upward momentum remains strong.

Wyckoff theory suggests that the market is still in a phase where new participants are entering. The trend remains bullish, likely to continue further.

Risks: what could turn the tide?

Although the main trend is upward, there are scenarios that could change the outlook.

Successful trade negotiations – If major powers reach an agreement, concerns may ease, and investors might shift away from gold.

Profit-taking sell-off – After a strong eight-week rally, gold holders may start to realize profits. This outflow could put downward pressure on prices.

Dollar strengthening – If the US economy shows signs of a stronger-than-expected recovery, real interest rates may not decline as markets anticipate, which could pressure gold prices.

Inflation not easing – If prices remain high, interest rates might stay elevated, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Trading strategies: 3 approaches to catch the wave

( Strategy 1: Wait for a pullback and buy

Given the rapid price increase, a short-term correction may occur. This strategy involves waiting for the price to retrace to support levels around $3,850–3,880 and entering when signs of reversal appear.

Set a stop-loss at $3,750 and target a profit at $4,100.

) Strategy 2: Trade on resistance testing

Once the price breaks above $4,000, it may retest this level. If this level holds against selling pressure, it’s a good buy signal.

Strategy 3: Use Fibonacci ratios

Draw from the previous low around $3,500 to the recent high at $4,059, then look for 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels as potential buy points.

Summary: What about gold in 2025-2026?

The gold market has entered a new chapter. The $4,900 per ounce target no longer seems like a dream but a destination. Strong structural factors—from interest rate cuts, trade tensions, to central bank gold accumulation—all point to gold remaining an attractive option.

But remember, trading requires timing and risk management. The gold market can swing sharply up and down, but the overall trend remains upward. Before investing, ensure you understand your strategy and the holding period for gold.