#美联储降息预期 The Fed's recent moves are quite interesting. They cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, totaling a 75 basis point reduction this year. It looks pretty aggressive. But a closer look at the dot plot and Powell's statements shows that the market only expects one rate cut next year, with a 78% probability of holding off on rate cuts in January. This shift is a bit sudden.

In simple terms, the Federal Reserve is preparing for two scenarios — they don't want to tighten too much and crash the economy, but they also need to guard against inflation rebounding. Powell explicitly said that the labor market is cooling, but inflation remains somewhat high, so future policy really depends on how employment data evolves. Goldman Sachs analysts also made some sobering comments: the preemptive rate cuts are nearly exhausted, and if they want to continue easing, the labor market must weaken further.

The reaction in the crypto space also reflects this. Bitcoin once surged to 94,000, then fell back to 91,000, indicating the market is digesting the "significant downward revision of rate cut expectations." Moving forward, the focus will be on employment and inflation data, as the quality of these two indicators will determine the Fed's pace next year.