2025-12-25 03:26:39

Yesterday, I looked at the performance of the US stock market. The daily chart shows a clear upward trend, forming a classic V-shaped rebound. In contrast, BTC's daily chart this week has not kept up and is still consolidating sideways. What does this indicate? A divergence has emerged between the main market and US stocks—only falling and not rising. This precisely suggests that the upward momentum of the main market is weakening, and the rally is somewhat exhausted.

What does this mean? If the US stock market weakens further, the crypto market is very likely to follow and decline sharply. Therefore, the focus should be on the US stock market's movements next. Additionally, it is worth noting that the US stock market will be closed for one day tonight due to the Christmas holiday.

From the liquidation chart, BTC, ETH, and SOL currently show a relatively balanced force between longs and shorts, with no obvious concentration trend. Most market participants are waiting and observing, and there is no consensus on a clear direction yet.

From the dynamic data of spot ETF institutional funds, the situation is clearer: BTC has seen outflows of $66.7 million, ETH outflows of $30.5 million, and only SOL recorded an inflow of $400,000. This reflects that, due to the holiday overseas, institutional trading activity has significantly decreased, and funds are showing a net outflow.

Without any unexpected positive news, the market is likely to remain quiet, with limited volatility. If the main market can maintain this sideways consolidation until the end of the month, that would be quite good. Whether there will be a sudden turn later still requires continued observation of market reactions.

From a short-term perspective, short-term swing and grid arbitrage strategies are more suitable for the current rhythm. The trading ranges are as follows: BTC fluctuates between 86,000-89,000; ETH between 2,880-3,030; SOL is relatively weaker, with a range of 118-125.

Regarding contract trading suggestions: for a bearish view on BTC, consider entering around 88,500 or at higher levels, adding positions at 90,000, and taking profits in batches at 87,000; for a bullish view, consider entering at 86,500 or lower, adding at 85,000, and taking profits in batches at 88,500. For ETH, a short position can be entered around 2,980 or at higher levels, adding at 3,080, and taking profits in batches at 2,930; a long position can be entered at 2,900, adding at 2,800, and taking profits in batches at 2,860. For SOL, a short position can be entered around 124, adding at 127, and taking profits in batches at 120.

There are also potential hidden gems in the market—projects with an expected 7-10x growth, worth continuous attention for the next market movements.

BTC0.77%

SOL0.28%

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FOMOSapien

· 5h ago

Institutions are all on holiday, while retail investors are still here watching the market, which is quite unreasonable.

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ruggedNotShrugged

· 5h ago

The institutions are running, and we're still here waiting? Holiday market conditions are like this, dead and quiet.

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MeaninglessApe

· 5h ago

Institutions are running, while people are slacking off during the holiday. This rhythm is indeed a bit awkward... --- Only following the downtrend and not the uptrend? Why not just lie flat then? --- Playing grid trading in the 86,000-89,000 range is pretty good, just worried about a black swan during the holiday. --- The 400,000 influx into SOL is truly lonely, too tragic haha. --- If the market is still sideways by the end of the month, our group is going to be bored to death. --- Let's wait until the US stock market comes back; right now, there's really no sense of direction. --- Potential coins 7-10x? Easier said than done, and losses can come quickly too. --- Net capital outflows seem to have nothing to do with "good news." --- Is this wave of market movement a "profit from arbitrage if you have the skills" rhythm?

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AllInAlice

· 5h ago

Institutions run away, the holiday is quiet, this rhythm is indeed a bit frustrating... Wait for the US stock market to wake up, anything said now is useless. I've had my eye on the 86,000-89,000 range for a while, just waiting for a signal. 7-10x potential coins? Brother, you first tell me which ones they are. Sideways trading is the most exhausting, more uncomfortable than a decline, really. Sol is so weak, it feels like there's no real participation value. Institutional net capital outflow is the key, which indicates that everyone is uncertain. Short-term arbitrage is an option, but you need to act quickly, or you'll get squeezed out. Just treat these few days of the holiday as a break, anyway, there's nothing to do.

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gas_fee_therapy

· 5h ago

Institutions are all rushing, and we're still here debating the direction... The holiday season is just like this, very quiet.

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ResearchChadButBroke

· 5h ago

Institutions are active, the holiday is quiet, and this sideways movement might really last until the end of the month. However, the inflow into SOL is quite interesting.

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PaperHandsCriminal

· 6h ago

It's that same trick of only falling and not rising. I knew the US stock market wouldn't have any action during these days of closure. Sideways trading can really wear people out. Institutions are already starting to withdraw. I'm still here waiting for coins with 7-10x potential, but it all feels like an illusion. These contract numbers look professional, but in reality, they're just gamblers' self-comfort. Anyone who actually trades based on this is a true paper hand.

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