Bitcoin's price movements are often not just about market sentiment.

Many believe that Japan's rate hikes are a thing of the past, but have you ever wondered—why are hedge funds and emerging companies still continuously buying BTC? On the surface, it's for hedging, but in reality, there's a deeper capital logic behind it.

Imagine the cryptocurrency market as a piggy bank of capital. When capital faces liquidity needs and needs to fill gaps, this piggy bank gets shattered. All the money is withdrawn. The laws of macroeconomic operation actually hint at this.

Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: some old-school altcoins suddenly surge collectively. What's the logic behind this? I spent a lot of time crawling on-chain liquidity pool data, setting filters for addresses with no fund movement for 1-3 years. The result showed that at the moment an interest rate hike cycle begins, these addresses start withdrawing liquidity in bulk.

This signal is very important. Behind many mainstream liquidity pools are long-term investments from small funds and institutions, who borrow funds in yen to earn liquidity fees. Now they are collectively withdrawing—what does this mean? Risk awareness is awakening.

Seemingly prosperous moments are often the easiest to deceive the eye. But those who truly understand the market know: capital has a mind of its own. When cycles meet macroeconomics, they act in advance. When risk signals just start to appear, they are already fleeing at full speed. That’s why it’s important to follow the cycle, rather than be fooled by short-term prosperity.