The Bitcoin price has been sluggish over the past two months, with social media criticism mainly targeting a major publicly listed company and its founder. The wave of criticism is growing louder, and pessimism is spreading throughout the market.

The root cause lies in the company's stock price dropping too sharply. From $456 in July 2025, it has fallen all the way down to below $160, a decline of over 65%. Investors are beginning to worry about how risky the company's strategy of borrowing to buy coins could be in a bear market. Selling off, dilution, liquidation—various panic expectations are circulating on forums.

What’s more striking is that recently, 61% of traders on Polymarket bet that this company will be kicked out of the MSCI index before the end of March next year. This figure is somewhat alarming, further fueling market anxiety.

But here’s an interesting twist. On-chain analytics firm Santiment pointed out that when bearish sentiment towards a well-known individual or company reaches an extreme and consensus expectation forms, it often signals that the market is nearing the bottom. The logic is simple: the more extreme the panic, the more thoroughly retail investors sell off their holdings, and the selling pressure eventually exhausts itself. This is the contrarian investment principle.

Interestingly, this company itself has also sensed the risk. According to on-chain data, they have slowed down their Bitcoin purchasing pace and accumulated a large amount of US dollar cash reserves, enough to cover more than a year’s worth of dividends and interest. Recent disclosed financial plans also show they have a backup plan—in case of necessity, they can sell some Bitcoin or use derivatives for risk hedging.

In plain terms, when everyone is shouting with criticism and market sentiment hits rock bottom, those worst-case expectations may have already been largely digested. Any positive news could reverse the entire market outlook. Currently, this wave of pessimism might be brewing conditions for a rebound. The downside risks have been mostly released, and it could instead be giving rise to new opportunities.