#通胀与经济增长 The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates again, but internal disagreements among officials are causing a lot of noise. This signal really needs to be interpreted thoroughly. Three rate cuts sound great, but Nick Timiraos's article hits the core issue—inflation hasn't truly softened yet, and employment is cooling down, which is the so-called precursor to stagflation.

Having been in the crypto space for many years, the biggest fear is this kind of uncertain environment. When economic data is ambiguous, it's precisely when the big players love to harvest gains. They will use the Fed's policy swings to create volatility, and retail investors are often mesmerized by this macro drama, overlooking the fragility of the projects themselves.

The key point is, Powell has only five months left in his term, and there are only three rate meetings ahead. This period of power vacuum is most prone to sudden policy shifts, and the crypto market's reaction to such shifts is often very violent. Look at those highly leveraged traders and projects claiming "yield"—once stagflation truly arrives, liquidity can dry up instantly.

My advice is: now is not the time to chase gains, but to examine the lifecycle of your holdings. Projects that lack real applications and rely solely on stories and hype will be the first to suffer when economic expectations reverse. Instead of guessing the Fed's next move, focus on identifying which projects can survive the winter. The stagflation risk is ringing the alarm—it's time to wake up.